OFI 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, OFI have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (OFI) versus 1.80 (Olympiakos Piraeus). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better historical record — 6 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for OFI.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 0–4 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 58% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 56% | Olympiakos Piraeus 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.24 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.052 / defence 1.182 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.128 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.216. Data: 38 OFI games / 38 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 28% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.22. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 70% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 28% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG OFI 1.24 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.052 / def 1.182 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.128 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
OFI 0 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 28% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (6 meetings): OFI 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 6W.
What form are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.05) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
28%
3.53
26%
3.78
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
OFI xG
Total xG
2.86
1.62
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
6%
17.86
13%
7.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for OFI and 1.62 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, OFI have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 11W 18D 16L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 27W 9D 9L from 45 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OFI.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (8W 8D 6L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 11W 5D 6L from 22 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.00 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 11W 18D 16L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 27W 9D 9L in their last 45 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.45 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.73 PPG.
Have OFI or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
OFI
0
Draws
10
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when OFI 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 59%, Olympiakos Piraeus 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (OFI) and 46% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 32%; Olympiakos Piraeus in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of OFI's recent matches and 46% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of OFI's recent games and 46% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat OFI 0-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.24 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.62 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OFI fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.05 / defence 1.18 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.13 / defence 0.92, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 28% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 56%, Olympiakos Piraeus 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.