AEK Athens FC 4-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 57% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
OPAP Arena plays host to AEK Athens FC versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1 (matchday 13). Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form
AEK Athens FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
AEK Athens FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — AEK Athens FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for AEK Athens FC, 1.70 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours AEK Athens FC, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Aris Thessalonikis — Aris Thessalonikis have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2024, ended AEK Athens FC 2–1 Aris Thessalonikis — a AEK Athens FC win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both AEK Athens FC and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 46% versus Aris Thessalonikis 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.66 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.347 / defence 0.664 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.963 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.235. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.347 — their 1.66 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC have a tight defence (rating 0.664), which is pulling Aris Thessalonikis's projected output down. Data: built from AEK Athens FC's last 38 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 38.
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 57% | Draw 26% | Aris Thessalonikis 16%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.75 | Draw 3.78 | Aris Thessalonikis 6.07. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (57%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (AEK Athens FC 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AEK Athens FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 13 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 57% | Draw 26% | Aris Thessalonikis 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG AEK Athens FC 1.66 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.347 / def 0.664 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.963 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Aris Thessalonikis xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis FAQs
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
AEK Athens FC 4 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 13) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 57% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AEK Athens FC's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.96x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from AEK Athens FC's last 38 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
57%
1.75
26%
3.78
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.45
0.79
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
3%
32.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.3 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.79 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 2.06 PPG on a 29W 12D 7L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 22W 10D 16L from 48 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L.
Put side by side, AEK Athens FC are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aris Thessalonikis.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 2.50 PPG from their last 24 home games (18W 6D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.06 PPG overall — AEK Athens FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 9W 5D 10L from their last 24 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AEK Athens FC are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.42 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
AEK Athens FC (Home) vs Aris Thessalonikis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis Form FAQs
What form are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 29W 12D 7L in their last 48 games (2.06 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 22W 10D 16L in their last 48 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.50 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.33 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won AEK Athens FC 5-0 Aris Thessalonikis on 5 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AEK Athens FC
3
Draws
0
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AEK Athens FC have won 7, Aris Thessalonikis have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: AEK Athens FC 5-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 38%, Aris Thessalonikis 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (AEK Athens FC) and 33% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 42%; Aris Thessalonikis in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 71% of Aris Thessalonikis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Aris Thessalonikis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Aris Thessalonikis 4-0 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.66 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.79 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.66 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 57% | Draw 26% | Aris Thessalonikis 16%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 60%, Aris Thessalonikis 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.58. That form edge translated into the three points. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.