OFI 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 45% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI in Super League 1 (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, OFI have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, OFI have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (OFI) versus 1.80 (Olympiakos Piraeus). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for OFI.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2024, ended OFI 0–4 Olympiakos Piraeus — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 58% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 56% | Olympiakos Piraeus 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.24 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.052 / defence 1.182 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.128 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.216. Data: built from OFI's last 38 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 38.
Result probabilities: OFI 28% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.53 | Draw 3.78 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.21. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Olympiakos Piraeus 5 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (OFI's last 10 home games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OFI 70% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 28% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG OFI 1.24 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.052 / def 1.182 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.128 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus FAQs
What time does OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
OFI 0 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 13) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 28% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.05) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 38 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
28%
3.53
26%
3.78
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
OFI xG
Total xG
2.86
1.62
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
6%
17.86
13%
7.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for OFI and 1.62 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, OFI have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 11W 18D 16L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 27W 9D 9L from 45 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OFI.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.45 PPG from their last 22 home games (8W 8D 6L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 11W 5D 6L from their last 22 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.00 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
OFI (Home) vs Olympiakos Piraeus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 11W 18D 16L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 27W 9D 9L in their last 45 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.45 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.73 PPG.
Have OFI or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Feb 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus won Olympiakos Piraeus 4-0 OFI.
OFI's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
OFI
0
Draws
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 59%, Olympiakos Piraeus 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (OFI) and 46% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 32%; Olympiakos Piraeus in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of OFI's recent matches and 46% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of OFI's recent games and 46% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of OFI's recent matches and 73% of Olympiakos Piraeus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat OFI 0-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.24 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.62 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OFI fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.05 / defence 1.18 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.13 / defence 0.92, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 28% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 56%, Olympiakos Piraeus 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.