Lamia 1-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours OFI (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamia face OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
OFI make the trip to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to face Lamia in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lamia's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia have gone 0W 3D 7L this season (10 games, 0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
OFI have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, OFI have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. OFI are 1.10 PPG clear of Lamia in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.50 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Lamia 1W, OFI 3W, 4D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Lamia half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 61% versus OFI 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 66% | OFI 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.15 xG and OFI 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.745 / defence 1.029 | OFI attack 1.044 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.246. Lamia's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Lamia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Lamia games / 37 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 32% | Draw 28% | OFI 41%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | OFI 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 50% | OFI 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 32% | Draw 28% | OFI 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Lamia 1.15 / OFI 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.745 / def 1.029 | OFI attack 1.044 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: OFI (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.34
OFI xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs OFI kick off?
Lamia vs OFI kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs OFI?
Lamia 1 - 1 OFI.
Where is Lamia vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs OFI part of?
Lamia vs OFI is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 32% chance of winning, OFI a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lamia and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and OFI?
Record (8 meetings): Lamia 1W | Draws 4 | OFI 3W.
What form are Lamia and OFI in?
Lamia (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. OFI (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Lamia vs OFI?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.74) and OFI's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — OFI's attack (1.04x) against Lamia's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
32%
3.17
28%
3.63
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.49
1.34
OFI xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Lamia and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Lamia and 1.34 for OFI, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 9W 11D 24L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI's form line: 11W 17D 16L from 44 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Lamia against 1.14 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.91 PPG from 22 outings (5W 5D 12L).
On the road, OFI have gone 3W 9D 10L from 22 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Lamia are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.18 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and OFI in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 9W 11D 24L in their last 44 games (0.86 PPG), while OFI have gone 11W 17D 16L in their last 44 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or OFI away?
Lamia's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.91 PPG; OFI away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 1-4 on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamia have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
5
Draws
4
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, OFI have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when OFI 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 59%, OFI 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Lamia and 68% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 32% of games; OFI in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play OFI?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Lamia's games and 54% of OFI's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamia vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Lamia's matches and 68% of OFI's.
Do Lamia and OFI tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, OFI in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamia and OFI share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 12, as Lamia and OFI drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.15 xG and OFI 1.34 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.74 / defence 1.03 against OFI attack 1.04 / defence 1.25, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 32% | Draw 28% | OFI 41%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 66%, OFI 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.86 PPG, OFI 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.