VfB Stuttgart 5-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as VfB Stuttgart face Borussia Dortmund.

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Match Analysis

VfB Stuttgart host Borussia Dortmund at MHPArena in Bundesliga (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 22 September 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Form Guide

VfB Stuttgart — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, VfB Stuttgart have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Borussia Dortmund away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VfB Stuttgart 2.00 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 2 for Borussia Dortmund and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2024, ended VfB Stuttgart 1–0 Borussia Dortmund — a VfB Stuttgart win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 94% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 60% versus Borussia Dortmund 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 76% | Borussia Dortmund 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.80 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.289 / defence 0.994 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.808 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.670. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack rating of 1.289 — their 1.80 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 37 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 37.

Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 46% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 27%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.17 | Draw 3.66 | Borussia Dortmund 3.77. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.80 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 60% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Dortmund 40% (last 10 away games).

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