Werder Bremen 0-5 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayern München at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs Bayern München encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen host Bayern München at Weserstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Werder Bremen at Weserstadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayern München — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bayern München have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Bayern München have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Werder Bremen at 1.70 PPG versus Bayern München's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Bayern München have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Werder Bremen's 1 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Werder Bremen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayern München have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Bayern München in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 94% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 60% versus Bayern München 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Werder Bremen 60% | Bayern München 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.64 xG and Bayern München 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.893 / defence 0.847 | Bayern München attack 1.488 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.591. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.488 — the away xG of 2.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Werder Bremen games / 37 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 30% | Draw 25% | Bayern München 45%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Bayern München 2.22. Bayern München hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayern München as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayern München offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 80% | Bayern München 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 30% | Draw 25% | Bayern München 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 71% | xG Werder Bremen 1.64 / Bayern München 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.893 / def 0.847 | Bayern München attack 1.488 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.591 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Bayern München xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Bayern München kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Bayern München kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Bayern München?
Werder Bremen 0 - 5 Bayern München.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Bayern München part of?
Werder Bremen vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 30% chance of winning, Bayern München a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Werder Bremen and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Bayern München?
Record (6 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 1 | Bayern München 4W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Bayern München in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Bayern München (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Bayern München's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
30%
3.32
25%
4.03
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.64
2.01
Bayern München xG
3.32
30%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.49
Clean Sheet
13%
7.44
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
4%
24.69
9%
11.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 2.01 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 12W 11D 14L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayern München's form line: 26W 3D 8L from 37 games, 2.19 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Bayern München, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Werder Bremen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
On the road, Bayern München have gone 10W 2D 6L from 18 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bayern München's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.84 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Early Season
Bayern München
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Bayern München in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 26W 3D 8L in their last 37 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.44 PPG; Bayern München away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bayern München in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bayern München go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2022, when Bayern München won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
1
Draws
8
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 1, Bayern München have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Werder Bremen 0-3 Bayern München.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Werder Bremen at 61%, Bayern München at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Werder Bremen and 94% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 78% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Werder Bremen's games and 83% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Werder Bremen's matches and 94% of Bayern München's.
Do Werder Bremen and Bayern München tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayern München run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat Werder Bremen 0-5 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.64 xG and Bayern München 2.01 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Bayern München outscored their 2.01 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.89 / defence 0.85 against Bayern München attack 1.49 / defence 1.11, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 30% | Draw 25% | Bayern München 45%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 60%, Bayern München 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayern München's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayern München (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.