SV Wehen 0-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Holstein Kiel at 73% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Holstein Kiel make the trip to BRITA-Arena to face SV Wehen in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 32). The match kicks off on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
SV Wehen (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
SV Wehen at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — SV Wehen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Holstein Kiel have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Holstein Kiel are 1.70 PPG clear of SV Wehen over their recent games (2.20 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Holstein Kiel edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended SV Wehen 2–3 Holstein Kiel — a Holstein Kiel win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SV Wehen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Holstein Kiel goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Wehen 58% versus Holstein Kiel 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 46% | Holstein Kiel 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 0.77 xG and Holstein Kiel 2.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.787 / defence 1.330 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.259 / defence 0.650. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.411. SV Wehen's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Holstein Kiel bring a tight defence (rating 0.650, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling SV Wehen's projected output down. Holstein Kiel have an above-average attack rating of 1.259, which lifts their away xG to 2.36. SV Wehen's defence rating of 1.330 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Holstein Kiel's projected output up. Data: built from SV Wehen's last 31 games and Holstein Kiel's last 65.
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 10% | Draw 17% | Holstein Kiel 73%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 9.96 | Draw 5.73 | Holstein Kiel 1.38. The model has a clear lean to Holstein Kiel (73%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Holstein Kiel are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Wehen's last 10 home games and Holstein Kiel's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SV Wehen 70% (last 10 home games) | Holstein Kiel 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 32 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 10% | Draw 17% | Holstein Kiel 73% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG SV Wehen 0.77 / Holstein Kiel 2.36 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.787 / def 1.330 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.259 / def 0.650 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
2.36
Holstein Kiel xG
49%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel FAQs
What time does SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel?
SV Wehen 0 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel part of?
SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 32) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 10% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 73% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SV Wehen's attack rating (0.79) and Holstein Kiel's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Holstein Kiel's attack (1.26x) against SV Wehen's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 2.36.
These ratings are built from SV Wehen's last 31 games and Holstein Kiel's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-3 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
10%
9.96
17%
5.73
73%
1.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
0 – 3
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
3.13
2.36
Holstein Kiel xG
9.96
10%
Home win
5.73
17%
Draw
1.38
73%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
9%
10.62
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
1%
105.80
34%
2.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for SV Wehen and 2.36 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Wehen come into this having played 33 games, going 10W 8D 15L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.94 PPG from 33 outings (20W 4D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Holstein Kiel carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of SV Wehen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SV Wehen's home form reads 5W 5D 6L across their last 16 home games, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 2.25 points per game from their last 16 away games (11W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Wehen are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 2.09 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Holstein Kiel in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Current Season
Holstein Kiel
Current Season
SV Wehen (Home) vs Holstein Kiel (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Wehen
Current Season
Holstein Kiel
Current Season
❓ SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel Form FAQs
What form are SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 10W 8D 15L in their last 33 games (1.15 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 20W 4D 9L in their last 33 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Holstein Kiel's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 1.25 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 2.25 PPG.
Have SV Wehen or Holstein Kiel been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Wehen have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Holstein Kiel in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 5 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Wehen
0
Draws
2
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Wehen have won 0, Holstein Kiel have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 May 2024: SV Wehen 0-1 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Wehen 62%, Holstein Kiel 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (SV Wehen) and 50% (Holstein Kiel).
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of SV Wehen's recent matches and 44% of Holstein Kiel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of SV Wehen's recent games and 50% of Holstein Kiel's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of SV Wehen's recent matches and 75% of Holstein Kiel's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out SV Wehen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat SV Wehen 0-1 at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 0.77 xG and Holstein Kiel 2.36 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Holstein Kiel landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.79 / defence 1.33 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.26 / defence 0.65, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 10% | Draw 17% | Holstein Kiel 73%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 46%, Holstein Kiel 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. SV Wehen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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