SV Wehen 3-5 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Wehen at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Wehen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to BRITA-Arena to take on SV Wehen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SV Wehen — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Wehen have posted 3W 3D 4L at BRITA-Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — SV Wehen are significantly better at BRITA-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SV Wehen at 0.60 PPG versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SV Wehen have won 0, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SV Wehen in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Wehen 56% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 44% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.08 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.664 / defence 1.056 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.649 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.377. SV Wehen's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 SV Wehen games / 64 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 37% | Draw 33% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Wehen at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Wehen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: SV Wehen 70% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 37% | Draw 33% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG SV Wehen 1.08 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.664 / def 1.056 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.649 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: SV Wehen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
0.94
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Wehen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SV Wehen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Wehen 3 - 5 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is SV Wehen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SV Wehen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 37% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making SV Wehen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both SV Wehen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will SV Wehen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (1 meetings): SV Wehen 0W | Draws 0 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W.
What form are SV Wehen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
SV Wehen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SV Wehen's attack rating (0.66) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus SV Wehen's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Wehen Win
37%
2.70
33%
3.03
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
2.02
0.94
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for SV Wehen and 0.94 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, SV Wehen have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 10W 8D 14L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 13W 6D 13L from 32 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Wehen on 1.19 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SV Wehen have posted 1.33 PPG from 15 outings (5W 5D 5L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 3D 9L from 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Wehen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Wehen are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.41 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 32 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Current Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Wehen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 10W 8D 14L in their last 32 games (1.19 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 13W 6D 13L in their last 32 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SV Wehen's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 1.33 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.80 PPG.
Have SV Wehen or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Wehen have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Wehen
0
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Wehen have won 0, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when SV Wehen 3-5 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SV Wehen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Wehen 60%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (SV Wehen) and 40% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Wehen play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of SV Wehen's recent matches and 40% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Wehen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of SV Wehen's recent games and 40% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Wehen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
SV Wehen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over SV Wehen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SV Wehen 3-5 at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 1.08 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.94 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. SV Wehen beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 0.94 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.66 / defence 1.06 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.65 / defence 1.11, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 37% | Draw 33% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30%, with SV Wehen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual SpVgg Greuther Fürth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 44%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Wehen 1.19 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SV Wehen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.