Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Braunschweig at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Wehen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees SV Wehen travel to Eintracht-Stadion to take on Eintracht Braunschweig. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Eintracht-Stadion, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Eintracht Braunschweig are significantly better at Eintracht-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SV Wehen — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
SV Wehen's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Eintracht Braunschweig are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, SV Wehen 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2023, ended 3–1 with Eintracht Braunschweig winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
SV Wehen in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 47% versus SV Wehen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 56% | SV Wehen 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.41 xG and SV Wehen 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.851 / defence 0.974 | SV Wehen attack 0.784 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.386. Data: 66 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 32 SV Wehen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 44% | Draw 28% | SV Wehen 28%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | SV Wehen 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Braunschweig are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Braunschweig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Eintracht Braunschweig 30% | SV Wehen 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 44% | Draw 28% | SV Wehen 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.41 / SV Wehen 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.851 / def 0.974 | SV Wehen attack 0.784 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Braunschweig (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.06
SV Wehen xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Wehen kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Wehen kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Wehen?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 0 SV Wehen.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Wehen part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Wehen is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 44% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Braunschweig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Wehen will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Wehen?
Record (1 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 1W | Draws 0 | SV Wehen 0W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Wehen in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. SV Wehen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eintracht Braunschweig's attack at 0.85x the league average against SV Wehen's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Wehen's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Braunschweig Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.56
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.47
1.06
SV Wehen xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.06 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record stands at 10W 5D 19L from 34 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five.
SV Wehen, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 16L across 34 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.03 PPG, SV Wehen on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Eintracht Braunschweig have managed 6W 4D 7L from 17 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Wehen's away record stands at 5W 3D 9L across 17 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.21 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 34 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Current Season
SV Wehen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 10W 5D 19L in their last 34 games (1.03 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 10W 8D 16L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or SV Wehen away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.29 PPG; SV Wehen away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
0
Draws
0
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Wehen?
From 2 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, SV Wehen have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Wehen last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 SV Wehen.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Wehen?
Eintracht Braunschweig have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 47%, SV Wehen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 53% (SV Wehen).
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig have failed to score in 29% of games; SV Wehen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play SV Wehen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 53% of SV Wehen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Wehen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent games and 53% of SV Wehen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Wehen tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, SV Wehen in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Braunschweig edge out SV Wehen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat SV Wehen 1-0 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.41 xG and SV Wehen 1.06 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SV Wehen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against SV Wehen attack 0.78 / defence 1.09, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 44% | Draw 28% | SV Wehen 28%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 56%, SV Wehen 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Wehen's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.03 PPG, SV Wehen 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Braunschweig win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. SV Wehen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.