SV Elversberg 1-3 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SV Elversberg face SC Paderborn 07.

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Fixture Analysis

SV Elversberg welcome SC Paderborn 07 to URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 30 November 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Form Guide

SV Elversberg — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

SV Elversberg's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (SV Elversberg) versus 1.70 (SC Paderborn 07). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of SV Elversberg's games and 80% of SC Paderborn 07's (from SV Elversberg's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for SV Elversberg, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended SV Elversberg 1–3 SC Paderborn 07 — a SC Paderborn 07 win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

SV Elversberg trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Elversberg 60% and SC Paderborn 07 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Elversberg 64% | SC Paderborn 07 72%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 2.11 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.325 / defence 0.963 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.951 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.517. SV Elversberg carry an above-average attack rating of 1.325 — their 2.11 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from SV Elversberg's last 47 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 47.

Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 53% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 24%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 1.89 | Draw 4.34 | SC Paderborn 07 4.17. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.11 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Elversberg's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Elversberg 60% (last 10 home games) | SC Paderborn 07 80% (last 10 away games).

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