SV Darmstadt 98 0-0 Preußen Münster – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 and Preußen Münster meet at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Preußen Münster's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Preußen Münster have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 away fixtures (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in SV Darmstadt 98's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 home games and Preußen Münster's last 6 away games) — SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Preußen Münster in 83%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Preußen Münster — key trading statistics (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 85% and Preußen Münster 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 69% | Preußen Münster 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.93 xG and Preußen Münster 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.120 / defence 0.978 | Preußen Münster attack 0.898 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.531. Data: built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 13 games and Preußen Münster's last 13.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | Draw 25% | Preußen Münster 25%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.01 | Draw 4.01 | Preußen Münster 3.94. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.93 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 home games and Preußen Münster's last 6 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Darmstadt 98 60% (last 10 home games) | Preußen Münster 83% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 14 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | Draw 25% | Preußen Münster 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.93 / Preußen Münster 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.120 / def 0.978 | Preußen Münster attack 0.898 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.531 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Preußen Münster xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster FAQs
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 0 Preußen Münster.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 14) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 50% chance of winning, Preußen Münster a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Preußen Münster will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (1.12) and Preußen Münster's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Preußen Münster's attack (0.90x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 13 games and Preußen Münster's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
50%
2.01
25%
4.01
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.27
1.34
Preußen Münster xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
4%
26.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Preußen Münster expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.34 for Preußen Münster, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 5W 4D 4L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Preußen Münster's form line: 2W 5D 6L from 13 games, 0.85 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-L.
Put side by side, SV Darmstadt 98 are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Preußen Münster.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 6 home games (2W 3D 1L).
On the road, Preußen Münster have gone 1W 2D 3L from their last 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Preußen Münster are on 1.15 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 85% of their recent games; Preußen Münster in 62%.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Preußen Münster
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98 (Home) vs Preußen Münster (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Preußen Münster
Blended
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster Form FAQs
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Preußen Münster in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 5W 4D 4L in their last 13 games (1.46 PPG), while Preußen Münster have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Preußen Münster away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.50 PPG; Preußen Münster away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Preußen Münster — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SV Darmstadt 98
3
Draws
0
Preußen Münster
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Preußen Münster?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, Preußen Münster have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Preußen Münster last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Preußen Münster 1-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Preußen Münster?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Preußen Münster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for SV Darmstadt 98, 83% for Preußen Münster — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 67% (Preußen Münster). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Preußen Münster away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Preußen Münster Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Darmstadt 98 and Preußen Münster matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 83% of Preußen Münster's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Darmstadt 98 and Preußen Münster matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 67% of Preußen Münster's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Preußen Münster matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 100% of Preußen Münster's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SV Darmstadt 98's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 and Preußen Münster finished level at 0-0 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.93 xG and Preußen Münster 1.34 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Preußen Münster landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Preußen Münster attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 50% | Draw 25% | Preußen Münster 25%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 69%, Preußen Münster 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did not.
Preußen Münster's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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