1. FC Magdeburg 1-3 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Magdeburg face Hertha BSC.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

1. FC Magdeburg and Hertha BSC meet at Avnet Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 November 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Current Form

1. FC Magdeburg's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

1. FC Magdeburg's home record over their last 10 home games: 0W 8D 2L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Hertha BSC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Hertha BSC have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.40 for Hertha BSC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 7.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Feb 2024, ended 1. FC Magdeburg 2–3 Hertha BSC — a Hertha BSC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 7.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

1. FC Magdeburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Hertha BSC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 57% and Hertha BSC 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 55% | Hertha BSC 74%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Magdeburg surrender their half-time lead 53% of the time, while Hertha BSC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Hertha BSC surrender HT leads in 37% of cases while 1. FC Magdeburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.24 xG and Hertha BSC 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.798 / defence 1.043 | Hertha BSC attack 1.144 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.493. 1. FC Magdeburg's attack rating of 0.798 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.24. Data: built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 47 games and Hertha BSC's last 47.

Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 25% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 49%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 3.97 | Draw 3.87 | Hertha BSC 2.04. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.24 / 1.78) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 home games and Hertha BSC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Magdeburg 50% (last 10 home games) | Hertha BSC 90% (last 10 away games).

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