PAU 3-1 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Valenciennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Valenciennes in Ligue 2 (matchday 17). Kick-off: Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PAU's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Valenciennes's record over their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Valenciennes have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in PAU's favour (1.80 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended PAU 1–1 Valenciennes — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Valenciennes half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 50% versus Valenciennes 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 46% | Valenciennes 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.50 xG and Valenciennes 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.250 / defence 1.320 | Valenciennes attack 0.775 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.110. Valenciennes's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. PAU's defence rating of 1.320 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Valenciennes's projected output up. Data: built from PAU's last 54 games and Valenciennes's last 54.
Result probabilities: PAU 45% | Draw 26% | Valenciennes 29%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.20 | Draw 3.86 | Valenciennes 3.50. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: PAU 50% (last 10 home games) | Valenciennes 10% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 17 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 45% | Draw 26% | Valenciennes 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG PAU 1.50 / Valenciennes 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.250 / def 1.320 | Valenciennes attack 0.775 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: PAU (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Valenciennes xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAU vs Valenciennes FAQs
What time does PAU vs Valenciennes kick off?
PAU vs Valenciennes kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 5 December 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Valenciennes?
PAU 3 - 1 Valenciennes.
Where is PAU vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Valenciennes part of?
PAU vs Valenciennes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 17) (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 45% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both PAU and Valenciennes will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PAU vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PAU's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Valenciennes's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Valenciennes's attack (0.78x) against PAU's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from PAU's last 54 games and Valenciennes's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.86
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
PAU xG
Total xG
2.64
1.14
Valenciennes xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
6%
15.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAU vs Valenciennes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are PAU and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for PAU and 1.14 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAU come into this having played 54 games, going 19W 16D 19L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Valenciennes sit at 1.04 PPG from 54 outings (11W 23D 20L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for PAU against 1.04 for Valenciennes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAU's home form reads 10W 9D 8L across their last 27 home games, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Valenciennes have taken 0.85 points per game from their last 27 away games (5W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.94 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
PAU (Home) vs Valenciennes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAU
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
❓ PAU vs Valenciennes Form FAQs
What form are PAU and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 19W 16D 19L in their last 54 games (1.35 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 11W 23D 20L in their last 54 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Valenciennes away?
PAU's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.44 PPG; Valenciennes away: 0.85 PPG.
Have PAU or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
PAU have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAU won Valenciennes 1-4 PAU on 13 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
PAU
2
Draws
1
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ PAU vs Valenciennes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Valenciennes?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, PAU have won 3, Valenciennes have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Valenciennes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2024: Valenciennes 1-4 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Valenciennes?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Valenciennes see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 44%, Valenciennes 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (PAU) and 30% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Valenciennes in 33%; PAU have failed to score in 30% of games; Valenciennes in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAU vs Valenciennes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAU and Valenciennes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of PAU's recent matches and 30% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAU and Valenciennes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of PAU's recent games and 30% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Valenciennes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of PAU's recent matches and 59% of Valenciennes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Valenciennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Valenciennes 3-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.50 xG and Valenciennes 1.14 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.25 / defence 1.32 against Valenciennes attack 0.78 / defence 0.97, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 45% | Draw 26% | Valenciennes 29%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 46%, Valenciennes 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Valenciennes's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.35 PPG, Valenciennes 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Valenciennes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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