Dunkerque 0-5 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dunkerque face Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Dunkerque welcome Bastia to Stade Marcel-Tribut in Ligue 2 (matchday 17). Kick-off is Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Dunkerque have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Dunkerque have posted 0W 2D 6L from their last 8 home games — 0.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bastia stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bastia away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dunkerque at 0.70 PPG versus Bastia's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Dunkerque, 1 for Bastia and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 15 Mar 2022, ended Dunkerque 0–1 Bastia — a Bastia win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Dunkerque trading profile (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Bastia trading profile (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 38% versus Bastia 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 38% | Bastia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.67 xG and Bastia 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.565 / defence 1.266 | Bastia attack 0.666 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.110. Dunkerque's attack rating of 0.565 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Bastia's attack rating of 0.666 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Dunkerque's defence rating of 1.266 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bastia's projected output up. Data: built from Dunkerque's last 16 games and Bastia's last 54.
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 25% | Draw 35% | Bastia 40%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 4.01 | Draw 2.86 | Bastia 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS Yes probability 30% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Dunkerque's lower xG of 0.67 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 78% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dunkerque's last 8 home games and Bastia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 70%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dunkerque 38% (last 8 home games) | Bastia 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 17 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 25% | Draw 35% | Bastia 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% (Under 78%) | BTTS Yes 30% (No 70%) | xG Dunkerque 0.67 / Bastia 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.565 / def 1.266 | Bastia attack 0.666 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Bastia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Bastia xG
30%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dunkerque vs Bastia FAQs
What time does Dunkerque vs Bastia kick off?
Dunkerque vs Bastia kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 5 December 2023 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Dunkerque 0 - 5 Bastia.
Where is Dunkerque vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Bastia part of?
Dunkerque vs Bastia is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 17) (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 25% chance of winning, Bastia a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Dunkerque and Bastia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (70%).
Will Dunkerque vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (78%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dunkerque's attacking strength (0.56x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dunkerque's last 16 games and Bastia's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
25%
4.01
35%
2.86
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
1.61
0.94
Bastia xG
4.01
25%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.35
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
20%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.1 | 18.8 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dunkerque vs Bastia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.7%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Dunkerque and 0.94 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dunkerque come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 4D 9L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dunkerque on 0.81 PPG, Bastia on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dunkerque's home form reads 0W 2D 6L across their last 8 home games, a 0.25 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.81 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 0.38 points per game from their last 8 away games (0W 3D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Dunkerque are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.88 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Bastia
Blended
Dunkerque (Home) vs Bastia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dunkerque
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Dunkerque vs Bastia Form FAQs
What form are Dunkerque and Bastia in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 3W 4D 9L in their last 16 games (0.81 PPG), while Bastia have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Bastia away?
Bastia's away record (0.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.25 PPG; Bastia away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bastia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 20 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Dec 2023, when Bastia won Dunkerque 0-5 Bastia.
Dunkerque's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Dunkerque
3
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Dunkerque vs Bastia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Bastia?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Dunkerque have won 2, Bastia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Bastia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 February 2026: Dunkerque 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bastia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dunkerque 38% BTTS, Bastia 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Dunkerque and 12% for Bastia.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque have failed to score in 62% of games; Bastia in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dunkerque vs Bastia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dunkerque and Bastia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 25% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dunkerque and Bastia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Dunkerque's recent games and 12% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Bastia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bastia run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Dunkerque 0-5 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.67 xG and Bastia 0.94 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Bastia outscored their 0.94 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.56 / defence 1.27 against Bastia attack 0.67 / defence 0.96, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 25% | Draw 35% | Bastia 40%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 38%, Bastia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bastia's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 0.81 PPG, Bastia 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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