Annecy 1-2 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Caen in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Wednesday 6 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Annecy have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports.
Caen (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Caen have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Annecy's favour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Annecy, 0 for Caen and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2023, ended 2–0 with Annecy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Caen half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 44% versus Caen 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 48% | Caen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.82 xG and Caen 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.047 / defence 1.121 | Caen attack 1.116 / defence 1.365. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.137. Caen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.365 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Annecy games / 54 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 47% | Draw 23% | Caen 30%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Caen 3.33. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 50% | Caen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 47% | Draw 23% | Caen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Annecy 1.82 / Caen 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.047 / def 1.121 | Caen attack 1.116 / def 1.365 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Annecy (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Caen xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Caen kick off?
Annecy vs Caen kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Caen?
Annecy 1 - 2 Caen.
Where is Annecy vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Caen part of?
Annecy vs Caen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 47% chance of winning, Caen a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Annecy and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Caen?
Record (2 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 1 | Caen 0W.
What form are Annecy and Caen in?
Annecy (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Caen (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Annecy's attack at 1.05x the league average against Caen's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Caen's attack (1.12x) against Annecy's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
47%
2.14
23%
4.33
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Annecy xG
Total xG
3.24
1.42
Caen xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
5%
20.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Annecy and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Annecy and 1.42 for Caen, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Annecy come into this having played 54 games, going 15W 19D 20L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Caen sit at 1.44 PPG from 54 outings (21W 15D 18L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Annecy against 1.44 for Caen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Annecy's home form reads 11W 8D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Caen have taken 1.04 points per game from 27 outings (7W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.41 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Caen in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 15W 19D 20L in their last 54 games (1.19 PPG), while Caen have gone 21W 15D 18L in their last 54 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Caen away?
Annecy's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.52 PPG; Caen away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Annecy or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Caen in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Caen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Annecy
2
Draws
2
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Caen?
From 6 meetings on record, Annecy have won 2, Caen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2025, when Annecy 1-0 Caen.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 41%, Caen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Annecy) and 52% (Caen).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 30% of games; Caen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Annecy's recent matches and 59% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Annecy's recent games and 52% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Caen tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Caen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Caen defy the odds to beat Annecy 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Annecy 1-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.82 xG and Caen 1.42 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Annecy fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.05 / defence 1.12 against Caen attack 1.12 / defence 1.36, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 47% | Draw 23% | Caen 30%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Caen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 48%, Caen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Caen's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.19 PPG, Caen 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Caen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.