Estac Troyes 0-0 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estac Troyes face Concarneau.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Concarneau make the trip to Stade de l'Aube to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 2 (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Estac Troyes (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Estac Troyes have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Concarneau have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Concarneau's away record over their last 5 away games: 2W 0D 3L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.10 for Concarneau. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (last 10 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Concarneau half-time and goal-timing data (last 10 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 70% versus Concarneau 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 60% | Concarneau 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.51 xG and Concarneau 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.956 / defence 1.182 | Concarneau attack 0.818 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.075. Concarneau's defence rating of 1.234 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Estac Troyes's projected output up. Data: built from Estac Troyes's last 10 games and Concarneau's last 10.
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 48% | Draw 26% | Concarneau 26%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.08 | Draw 3.87 | Concarneau 3.83. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Estac Troyes 70% (last 10 home games) | Concarneau 20% (last 5 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 11 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 48% | Draw 26% | Concarneau 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Estac Troyes 1.51 / Concarneau 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.956 / def 1.182 | Concarneau attack 0.818 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Concarneau xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estac Troyes vs Concarneau FAQs
What time does Estac Troyes vs Concarneau kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Concarneau kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Concarneau?
Estac Troyes 0 - 0 Concarneau.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Concarneau part of?
Estac Troyes vs Concarneau is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 11) (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 48% chance of winning, Concarneau a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Estac Troyes and Concarneau will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Estac Troyes vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (0.96) and Concarneau's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Concarneau's attack (0.82x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Estac Troyes's last 10 games and Concarneau's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.87
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.55
1.04
Concarneau xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
6%
17.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estac Troyes vs Concarneau Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.04 for Concarneau, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 1W 5D 4L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Concarneau's form line: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.10 for Concarneau. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 4 home games (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Concarneau have gone 2W 0D 2L from their last 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Concarneau come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 0.90 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Concarneau in 30%.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Concarneau
Blended
Estac Troyes (Home) vs Concarneau (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estac Troyes
Blended
Concarneau
Blended
❓ Estac Troyes vs Concarneau Form FAQs
What form are Estac Troyes and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Concarneau away?
Concarneau's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.00 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 23 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
1
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Estac Troyes vs Concarneau H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Concarneau?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Estac Troyes have won 0, Concarneau have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Concarneau last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 January 2024: Concarneau 1-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Concarneau?
Concarneau have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Concarneau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 75%, Concarneau 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Estac Troyes and 50% for Concarneau. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Concarneau in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estac Troyes vs Concarneau Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estac Troyes and Concarneau matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 25% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estac Troyes and Concarneau matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Estac Troyes's matches and 50% of Concarneau's.
Do Estac Troyes and Concarneau matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 75% of Concarneau's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Estac Troyes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 11, as Estac Troyes and Concarneau drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.51 xG and Concarneau 1.04 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Estac Troyes fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Concarneau landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Concarneau attack 0.82 / defence 1.23, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 48% | Draw 26% | Concarneau 26%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 60%, Concarneau 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Concarneau's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 0.80 PPG, Concarneau 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Concarneau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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