Concarneau 4-3 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Concarneau at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Concarneau vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir plays host to Concarneau versus Dunkerque in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Concarneau's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 5L from 9 games (0.89 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.56 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Concarneau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Concarneau at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dunkerque have collected 0.67 PPG across 9 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque away from home this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.89 vs 0.67 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Concarneau have seen both teams score in just 25% of their games, Dunkerque in only 25%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading
Concarneau half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
Dunkerque half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Concarneau 22% | Dunkerque 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Concarneau 22% | Dunkerque 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 0.94 xG and Dunkerque 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.602 / defence 1.096 | Dunkerque attack 0.806 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 0.997. Concarneau's attack strength of 0.602 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Concarneau's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Concarneau games / 9 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Concarneau 35% | Draw 33% | Dunkerque 32%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Dunkerque 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Concarneau are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Concarneau if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Concarneau 25% | Dunkerque 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 35% | Draw 33% | Dunkerque 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Concarneau 0.94 / Dunkerque 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 0.602 / def 1.096 | Dunkerque attack 0.806 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.239 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Concarneau (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Dunkerque xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Concarneau vs Dunkerque kick off?
Concarneau vs Dunkerque kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs Dunkerque?
Concarneau 4 - 3 Dunkerque.
Where is Concarneau vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What competition is Concarneau vs Dunkerque part of?
Concarneau vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 35% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Concarneau the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Concarneau and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Concarneau vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Dunkerque?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Concarneau and Dunkerque in?
Concarneau (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 0.56 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.44 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Concarneau's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against Dunkerque's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (0.81x) against Concarneau's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Concarneau Win
35%
2.83
33%
3.06
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Concarneau xG
Total xG
1.82
0.88
Dunkerque xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 14.3 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Concarneau and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Concarneau and 0.88 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Concarneau have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 2W 2D 5L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Concarneau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque's form line: 1W 3D 5L from 9 games, 0.67 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Concarneau against 0.67 for Dunkerque. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Concarneau have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dunkerque come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Concarneau are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.67 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Concarneau have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Concarneau and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Concarneau have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Concarneau at home or Dunkerque away?
Dunkerque's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Concarneau at home: 0.50 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Concarneau
1
Draws
0
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Dunkerque?
From 2 meetings on record, Concarneau have won 1, Dunkerque have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Concarneau and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Dunkerque 2-2 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Concarneau and Dunkerque?
Concarneau have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Concarneau tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Dunkerque tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Concarneau) and 25% (Dunkerque) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Concarneau and 50% for Dunkerque.
On the defensive side: Concarneau have failed to score in 75% of games; Dunkerque in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Concarneau play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Concarneau's recent matches and 25% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Concarneau vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Concarneau's recent games and 50% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Concarneau and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Concarneau have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Concarneau edge out Dunkerque 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Concarneau beat Dunkerque 4-3 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 0.94 xG and Dunkerque 0.88 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Concarneau beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dunkerque outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 0.60 / defence 1.10 against Dunkerque attack 0.81 / defence 1.26, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 35% | Draw 33% | Dunkerque 32%, with Concarneau to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Concarneau 22%, Dunkerque 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 28%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Concarneau's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Concarneau 0.89 PPG, Dunkerque 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Concarneau win broke the near-deadlock. Concarneau (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.