Annecy 1-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Annecy face Amiens.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Amiens travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Annecy — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Annecy's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Annecy are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Amiens stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Amiens's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Annecy at 1.10 PPG versus Amiens's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Annecy have won 1, Amiens 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2023, ended Annecy 2–0 Amiens — a Annecy win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Annecy in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Amiens in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 42% versus Amiens 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 48% | Amiens 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.38 xG and Amiens 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.967 / defence 1.087 | Amiens attack 0.742 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.075. Amiens's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Annecy's last 48 games and Amiens's last 48.
Result probabilities: Annecy 49% | Draw 28% | Amiens 24%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.04 | Draw 3.63 | Amiens 4.24. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Annecy 50% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 11 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 49% | Draw 28% | Amiens 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Annecy 1.38 / Amiens 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.967 / def 1.087 | Amiens attack 0.742 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Annecy (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Amiens xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Amiens FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Amiens kick off?
Annecy vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Amiens?
Annecy 1 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Annecy vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Amiens part of?
Annecy vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 11) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 49% chance of winning, Amiens a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Annecy and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Annecy vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.97) and Amiens's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 48 games and Amiens's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.63
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.25
0.87
Amiens xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
6%
16.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Annecy and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Annecy and 0.87 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Annecy's recent record stands at 13W 17D 18L from 48 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 21L across 48 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.17 PPG, Amiens on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 10W 7D 6L from their last 23 home games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Annecy are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Amiens's away record stands at 6W 5D 12L across their last 23 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.02 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Amiens
Blended
Annecy (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Annecy vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Amiens in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 13W 17D 18L in their last 48 games (1.17 PPG), while Amiens have gone 17W 10D 21L in their last 48 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Amiens away?
Annecy's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.61 PPG; Amiens away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Annecy or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Amiens in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 16 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Annecy have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Sep 2024, when Annecy won Annecy 3-0 Amiens.
Annecy's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Annecy
1
Draws
3
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Amiens?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 4, Amiens have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Annecy and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 January 2026: Annecy 2-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Amiens?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 35%, Amiens 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Annecy) and 48% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 35% of games; Amiens in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Amiens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Annecy's recent matches and 48% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Annecy's recent games and 48% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Annecy's recent matches and 78% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy and Amiens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 11, as Annecy and Amiens drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.38 xG and Amiens 0.87 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Amiens attack 0.74 / defence 1.12, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 49% | Draw 28% | Amiens 24%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 48%, Amiens 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Amiens's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.17 PPG, Amiens 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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