Lyon 1-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 41%, yet in-form Lyon provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lyon vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lyon welcome Reims to Groupama Stadium in Ligue 1 (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 30 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lyon have gone 7W 0D 3L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Lyon at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Reims stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Reims's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lyon are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Lyon, 2 for Reims and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Lyon 0–2 Reims — a Reims win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lyon in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Reims in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 59% versus Reims 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 59% | Reims 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.33 xG and Reims 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 0.930 / defence 1.112 | Reims attack 1.046 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.293. Data: built from Lyon's last 64 games and Reims's last 64.
Result probabilities: Lyon 33% | Draw 26% | Reims 41%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 3.03 | Draw 3.79 | Reims 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lyon (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lyon's last 10 home games and Reims's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lyon 40% (last 10 home games) | Reims 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 27 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 33% | Draw 26% | Reims 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Lyon 1.33 / Reims 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 0.930 / def 1.112 | Reims attack 1.046 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Reims (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Reims xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lyon vs Reims FAQs
What time does Lyon vs Reims kick off?
Lyon vs Reims kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Reims?
Lyon 1 - 1 Reims.
Where is Lyon vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Reims part of?
Lyon vs Reims is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 27) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 33% chance of winning, Reims a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lyon and Reims will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lyon vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lyon's attack at 0.93x the league average against Reims's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lyon's last 64 games and Reims's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
33%
3.03
26%
3.79
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.83
1.50
Reims xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
7%
13.64
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lyon vs Reims Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lyon and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Lyon and 1.50 for Reims, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lyon come into this having played 64 games, going 28W 12D 24L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Reims sit at 1.39 PPG from 64 outings (23W 20D 21L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lyon on 1.50 PPG, Reims on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lyon's home form reads 14W 8D 10L across their last 32 home games, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Reims have taken 1.22 points per game from their last 32 away games (9W 12D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Lyon are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.23 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Reims
Blended
Lyon (Home) vs Reims (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lyon
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Lyon vs Reims Form FAQs
What form are Lyon and Reims in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 28W 12D 24L in their last 64 games (1.50 PPG), while Reims have gone 23W 20D 21L in their last 64 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Reims away?
Lyon's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.56 PPG; Reims away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Lyon or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Reims in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 9 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Feb 2025, when Lyon won Lyon 4-0 Reims.
Lyon's record when hosting Reims specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lyon
4
Draws
2
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Lyon vs Reims H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Reims?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lyon have won 2, Reims have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Reims last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 February 2025: Lyon 4-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 56%, Reims 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lyon) and 50% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Lyon keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Reims in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lyon vs Reims Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lyon and Reims matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Lyon's games and 56% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lyon and Reims matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lyon's recent games and 50% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Reims matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Lyon's recent matches and 62% of Reims's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lyon and Reims share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Lyon and Reims drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.33 xG and Reims 1.50 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Reims attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 33% | Draw 26% | Reims 41%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 59%, Reims 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.50 PPG, Reims 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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