Nice 1-2 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Nantes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Nantes travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nice have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice at Allianz Riviera this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Riviera. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Nice are significantly better at Allianz Riviera than their overall form suggests.
Nantes — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nantes have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nice 1.10 PPG, Nantes 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Nice have won 2, Nantes 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Nantes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nice trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Nantes trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 45% versus Nantes 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nice 34% | Nantes 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.15 xG and Nantes 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.894 / defence 0.816 | Nantes attack 0.752 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.283. Data: 64 Nice games / 64 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 43% | Draw 32% | Nantes 24%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Nantes 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Nice 30% | Nantes 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 43% | Draw 32% | Nantes 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Nice 1.15 / Nantes 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.894 / def 0.816 | Nantes attack 0.752 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Nice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Nantes xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Nantes kick off?
Nice vs Nantes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Nantes?
Nice 1 - 2 Nantes.
Where is Nice vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Nantes part of?
Nice vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 43% chance of winning, Nantes a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Nice and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Nantes?
Record (5 meetings): Nice 2W | Draws 2 | Nantes 1W.
What form are Nice and Nantes in?
Nice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Nantes (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nice's attack rating (0.89) and Nantes's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
43%
2.31
32%
3.08
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Nice xG
Total xG
1.94
0.79
Nantes xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 11.4 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Nice and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Nice and 0.79 for Nantes, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nice's recent record stands at 27W 20D 17L from 64 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nantes, meanwhile, have gone 14W 19D 31L across 64 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nice by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nice have managed 14W 10D 7L from 31 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantes's away record stands at 6W 8D 17L across 31 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 0.95 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Nantes in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 27W 20D 17L in their last 64 games (1.58 PPG), while Nantes have gone 14W 19D 31L in their last 64 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Nantes away?
Nice's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.68 PPG; Nantes away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Nice or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Nantes in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nice have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jan 2026, when Nice won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Nantes specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Nice
3
Draws
3
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Nantes?
From 10 meetings on record, Nice have won 4, Nantes have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Nantes 1-4 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Nantes?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 39%, Nantes 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Nice) and 48% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Nice have failed to score in 32% of games; Nantes in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Nantes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Nice's recent matches and 48% of Nantes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Nice's recent games and 48% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Nantes defy the odds to beat Nice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes beat Nice 1-2 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.15 xG and Nantes 0.79 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Nantes outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.89 / defence 0.82 against Nantes attack 0.75 / defence 0.97, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 43% | Draw 32% | Nantes 24%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Nantes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 34%, Nantes 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Nantes's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Nantes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.