Toulouse 2-3 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Lyon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Toulouse and Lyon meet at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 March 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Toulouse's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lyon have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lyon have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lyon are 0.50 PPG clear of Toulouse in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (2.10 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Toulouse lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with Lyon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lyon half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 57% versus Lyon 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 56% | Lyon 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.36 xG and Lyon 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.053 / defence 1.104 | Lyon attack 1.089 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.179. Data: 63 Toulouse games / 63 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 36% | Draw 26% | Lyon 38%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Lyon 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lyon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 70% | Lyon 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 36% | Draw 26% | Lyon 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Toulouse 1.36 / Lyon 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.053 / def 1.104 | Lyon attack 1.089 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Lyon (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Lyon xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Lyon kick off?
Toulouse vs Lyon kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 15 March 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Toulouse 2 - 3 Lyon.
Where is Toulouse vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Lyon part of?
Toulouse vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 36% chance of winning, Lyon a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Toulouse and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lyon?
Record (3 meetings): Toulouse 0W | Draws 1 | Lyon 2W.
What form are Toulouse and Lyon in?
Toulouse (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Lyon (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Toulouse's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Lyon's attack (1.09x) against Toulouse's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
36%
2.81
26%
3.85
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.78
1.42
Lyon xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.42 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 20W 17D 26L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lyon's form line: 27W 12D 24L from 63 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Toulouse against 1.48 for Lyon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 1.23 PPG from 31 outings (9W 11D 11L).
On the road, Lyon have gone 13W 4D 14L from 31 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Toulouse are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.46 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Lyon in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 20W 17D 26L in their last 63 games (1.22 PPG), while Lyon have gone 27W 12D 24L in their last 63 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.23 PPG; Lyon away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Toulouse have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lyon won 3-0 on 10 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lyon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Toulouse
2
Draws
4
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lyon?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Lyon have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Toulouse 2-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 64%, Lyon 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Toulouse) and 61% (Lyon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Lyon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Toulouse's games and 61% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Toulouse's matches and 61% of Lyon's.
Do Toulouse and Lyon tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Lyon in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Toulouse 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Toulouse 2-3 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.36 xG and Lyon 1.42 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Lyon outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.05 / defence 1.10 against Lyon attack 1.09 / defence 0.99, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 36% | Draw 26% | Lyon 38%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 56%, Lyon 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Lyon's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.22 PPG, Lyon 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.