Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenyang Urban at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shenyang Urban and Hangzhou Greentown meet at Tiexi Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Shenyang Urban (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenyang Urban, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tiexi Stadium, Shenyang Urban have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Shenyang Urban are significantly better at Tiexi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Shenyang Urban register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Hangzhou Greentown in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Shenyang Urban, 0 for Hangzhou Greentown and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 5–0 with Shenyang Urban winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shenyang Urban — key trading statistics (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Hangzhou Greentown — key trading statistics (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shenyang Urban 56% and Hangzhou Greentown 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shenyang Urban 68% | Hangzhou Greentown 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 1.83 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 1.007 / defence 1.343 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.971 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.397. Data: 24 Shenyang Urban games / 54 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 39% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 38%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shenyang Urban are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shenyang Urban if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.65 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shenyang Urban 80% | Hangzhou Greentown 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Tiexi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 39% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Shenyang Urban 1.83 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 1.007 / def 1.343 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.971 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Shenyang Urban (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Hangzhou Greentown xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Tiexi Stadium.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Tiexi Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 39% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shenyang Urban the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Shenyang Urban and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (1 meetings): Shenyang Urban 1W | Draws 0 | Hangzhou Greentown 0W.
What form are Shenyang Urban and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Shenyang Urban (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shenyang Urban's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (0.97x) against Shenyang Urban's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 24/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenyang Urban Win
39%
2.59
23%
4.34
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Shenyang Urban xG
Total xG
3.65
1.82
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.45
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
6%
15.98
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Shenyang Urban and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Shenyang Urban and 1.82 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shenyang Urban's recent record stands at 7W 4D 14L from 25 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Shenyang Urban is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 10L across 25 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Shenyang Urban against 1.32 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shenyang Urban have managed 6W 1D 6L from 13 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Shenyang Urban are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 3W 3D 7L across 13 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hangzhou Greentown's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenyang Urban come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shenyang Urban are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.64 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenyang Urban
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenyang Urban and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Shenyang Urban have gone 7W 4D 14L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 9W 6D 10L in their last 25 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenyang Urban at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Shenyang Urban's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenyang Urban at home: 1.46 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Shenyang Urban
0
Draws
0
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 1 meetings on record, Shenyang Urban have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenyang Urban and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 0-5 Shenyang Urban.
Who has won more matches between Shenyang Urban and Hangzhou Greentown?
Shenyang Urban have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shenyang Urban are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Shenyang Urban, 69% for Hangzhou Greentown — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Shenyang Urban and 69% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenyang Urban home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenyang Urban play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Shenyang Urban's games and 69% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Shenyang Urban's matches and 69% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Shenyang Urban and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Shenyang Urban have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.