Shandong Luneng 4-1 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shandong Luneng face Dalian Zhixing.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Dalian Zhixing at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 2). Kick-off is Friday 28 February 2025 at 07:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Shandong Luneng — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Shandong Luneng have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.44 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 0.871 / defence 0.813 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.823 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.239. Data: built from Shandong Luneng's last 31 games and Dalian Zhixing's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 50% | Draw 29% | Dalian Zhixing 20%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.00 | Draw 3.40 | Dalian Zhixing 4.88. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Shandong Luneng 31 games, Dalian Zhixing 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, matchday 2 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 50% | Draw 29% | Dalian Zhixing 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Shandong Luneng 1.44 / Dalian Zhixing 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 0.871 / def 0.813 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.823 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Dalian Zhixing xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing FAQs
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Friday 28 February 2025 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 1 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing is a Super League fixture (matchday 2) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 50% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 0.87x the league average against Dalian Zhixing's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Zhixing's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shandong Luneng's last 31 games and Dalian Zhixing's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.40
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.27
0.83
Dalian Zhixing xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
5%
20.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.83 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Pre-Season
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Shandong Luneng (Home) vs Dalian Zhixing (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shandong Luneng
Pre-Season
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from February 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 18 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Dalian Zhixing have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Feb 2025, when Shandong Luneng won Shandong Luneng 4-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Dalian Zhixing specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shandong Luneng
0
Draws
3
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Shandong Luneng have won 1, Dalian Zhixing have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 July 2026: Dalian Zhixing 3-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Dalian Zhixing 4-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.44 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.83 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 0.87 / defence 0.81 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 50% | Draw 29% | Dalian Zhixing 20%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.