Meizhou Kejia 3-4 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 45%, yet the head-to-head data favours Shandong Luneng — this Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Meizhou Kejia welcome Shandong Luneng to Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre in Super League (matchday 3). Kick-off is Saturday 29 March 2025 at 11:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Meizhou Kejia have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Meizhou Kejia at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shandong Luneng stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Shandong Luneng's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Meizhou Kejia 1.00 PPG, Shandong Luneng 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Shandong Luneng have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for Meizhou Kejia.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended Meizhou Kejia 1–2 Shandong Luneng — a Shandong Luneng win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Shandong Luneng have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 62% versus Shandong Luneng 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 60% | Shandong Luneng 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Meizhou Kejia surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Shandong Luneng have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.75 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.032 / defence 0.988 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.025 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.429. Data: built from Meizhou Kejia's last 32 games and Shandong Luneng's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 45% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 32%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.23 | Draw 4.30 | Shandong Luneng 3.13. Meizhou Kejia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.75 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Meizhou Kejia's last 10 home games and Shandong Luneng's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Meizhou Kejia 60% (last 10 home games) | Shandong Luneng 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Meizhou Kejia 32 games, Shandong Luneng 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, matchday 3 | Venue: Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 45% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.75 / Shandong Luneng 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.032 / def 0.988 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.025 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Shandong Luneng xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng FAQs
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng?
Meizhou Kejia 3 - 4 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng is a Super League fixture (matchday 3) (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 45% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Meizhou Kejia's attack at 1.03x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Meizhou Kejia's last 32 games and Shandong Luneng's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
45%
2.23
23%
4.30
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
3.20
1.45
Shandong Luneng xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
6%
18.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.45 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Meizhou Kejia have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 15W 16D 29L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Shandong Luneng's form line: 29W 19D 12L from 60 games, 1.77 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Shandong Luneng are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Meizhou Kejia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1.37 PPG from their last 30 home games (11W 8D 11L).
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 9W 13D 8L from their last 30 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.80 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia (Home) vs Shandong Luneng (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng Form FAQs
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 15W 16D 29L in their last 60 games (1.02 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 29W 19D 12L in their last 60 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.37 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 27 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Shandong Luneng have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Aug 2023, when Shandong Luneng won Shandong Luneng 6-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Meizhou Kejia
1
Draws
6
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, Shandong Luneng have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 July 2025: Shandong Luneng 3-0 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 63%, Shandong Luneng 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Meizhou Kejia) and 43% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 33%; Meizhou Kejia have failed to score in 30% of games; Shandong Luneng in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 53% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Meizhou Kejia's recent games and 43% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Meizhou Kejia's recent matches and 67% of Shandong Luneng's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shandong Luneng defy the odds to beat Meizhou Kejia 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Meizhou Kejia 3-4 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.75 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.45 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.45 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.02 / defence 1.02, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 45% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 32%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 60%, Shandong Luneng 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.