Yunnan Yukun 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Yunnan Yukun face Hangzhou Greentown.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Yunnan Yukun welcome Hangzhou Greentown to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.18 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.673 / defence 1.195 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.036 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.220. Yunnan Yukun's attack rating of 0.673 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Data: built from Yunnan Yukun's last 1 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 30% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 45%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 3.37 | Draw 3.91 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.23. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Yunnan Yukun 1 games, Hangzhou Greentown 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, matchday 2 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 30% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.18 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.673 / def 1.195 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.036 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Hangzhou Greentown xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown FAQs
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Yunnan Yukun 1 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Super League fixture (matchday 2) (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 30% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Yunnan Yukun's attack rating (0.67) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Yunnan Yukun's last 1 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
30%
3.37
26%
3.91
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
2.69
1.51
Hangzhou Greentown xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
7%
15.28
14%
7.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.51 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Yunnan Yukun (Home) vs Hangzhou Greentown (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from March 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Hangzhou Greentown have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Aug 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown won Hangzhou Greentown 6-0 Yunnan Yukun.
Yunnan Yukun's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Hangzhou Greentown 6-0 Yunnan Yukun.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown finished level at 1-1 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.18 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.67 / defence 1.20 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 30% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 45%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.