Hangzhou Greentown 0-5 Shenyang Urban – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenyang Urban fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hangzhou Dragon Stadium plays host to Hangzhou Greentown versus Shenyang Urban in Super League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 6D 1L at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.15 xG and Shenyang Urban 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.993 / defence 0.827 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.673 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.233. Shenyang Urban bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Hangzhou Greentown games / 13 Shenyang Urban games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 71% | Draw 19% | Shenyang Urban 10%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.41 | Draw 5.26 | Shenyang Urban 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 71% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenyang Urban | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Hangzhou Dragon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 71% | Draw 19% | Shenyang Urban 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 44% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.15 / Shenyang Urban 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.993 / def 0.827 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.673 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Shenyang Urban xG
44%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenyang Urban kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenyang Urban kicked off at 11:35 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenyang Urban?
Hangzhou Greentown 0 - 5 Shenyang Urban.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenyang Urban being played?
The match is being played at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenyang Urban part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenyang Urban is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenyang Urban?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 71% chance of winning, Shenyang Urban a 10% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenyang Urban?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Shenyang Urban will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenyang Urban have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shenyang Urban?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shenyang Urban in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Hangzhou Greentown home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 0.99x the league average against Shenyang Urban's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shenyang Urban's attack (0.67x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 1-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
71%
1.41
19%
5.35
10%
9.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.84
0.69
Shenyang Urban xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.35
19%
Draw
9.69
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
12%
8.60
Win to Nil
36%
2.80
1%
83.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenyang Urban?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Shenyang Urban expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.69 for Shenyang Urban, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenyang Urban?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Hangzhou Greentown
0
Draws
1
Shenyang Urban
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shenyang Urban?
From 1 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 0, Shenyang Urban have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Shenyang Urban last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 0-5 Shenyang Urban.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Shenyang Urban?
Shenyang Urban have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Shenyang Urban away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Shenyang Urban run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenyang Urban beat Hangzhou Greentown 0-5 at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.15 xG and Shenyang Urban 0.69 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Shenyang Urban outscored their 0.69 projection by 4.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.99 / defence 0.83 against Shenyang Urban attack 0.67 / defence 1.31, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 71% | Draw 19% | Shenyang Urban 10%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a Shenyang Urban win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.