Beijing Guoan 2-2 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 40%, yet in-form Beijing Guoan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Workers' Stadium plays host to Beijing Guoan versus SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League (matchday 4). Kick-off: Friday 5 April 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Beijing Guoan have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Beijing Guoan's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 10 away games) — Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2023, ended Beijing Guoan 2–1 SHANGHAI SIPG — a Beijing Guoan win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SHANGHAI SIPG — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 59% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 61% | SHANGHAI SIPG 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.13 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.093 / defence 0.989 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.994 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.298. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 33 games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 33% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 40%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 3.06 | Draw 3.63 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beijing Guoan (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 60% (last 10 home games) | SHANGHAI SIPG 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Beijing Guoan 33 games, SHANGHAI SIPG 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, matchday 4 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 April 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 33% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Beijing Guoan 1.13 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.093 / def 0.989 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.994 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.28
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 5 April 2024 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Super League fixture (matchday 4) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 33% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Beijing Guoan's attack at 1.09x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (0.99x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 33 games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
33%
3.06
28%
3.63
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.40
1.28
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.28 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 31W 16D 17L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 39W 11D 14L from 64 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 2.00 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 1.75 PPG from their last 32 home games (16W 8D 8L).
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 20W 5D 7L from their last 32 away games — 2.03 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.81 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs SHANGHAI SIPG (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 16D 17L in their last 64 games (1.70 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 39W 11D 14L in their last 64 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.75 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won SHANGHAI SIPG 5-1 Beijing Guoan on 12 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 3, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: SHANGHAI SIPG 0-0 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 56%, SHANGHAI SIPG 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Beijing Guoan) and 56% (SHANGHAI SIPG). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 47% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 56% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 64% of SHANGHAI SIPG's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG finished level at 2-2 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.13 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.28 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.09 / defence 0.99 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.99 / defence 0.84, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 33% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 40%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 61%, SHANGHAI SIPG 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.70 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.