Wuhan Three Towns 0-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wuhan Three Towns face Beijing Guoan.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns welcome Beijing Guoan to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 3). Kick-off is Saturday 30 March 2024 at 07:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Wuhan Three Towns's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Beijing Guoan stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Beijing Guoan away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Wuhan Three Towns) versus 2.00 (Beijing Guoan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, Beijing Guoan 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Jul 2023, ended Wuhan Three Towns 1–1 Beijing Guoan — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 58% versus Beijing Guoan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 64% | Beijing Guoan 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 0.96 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.028 / defence 0.958 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.013 / defence 0.690. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.242. Beijing Guoan bring a tight defence (rating 0.690, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Wuhan Three Towns's projected output down. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 32 games and Beijing Guoan's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 28% | Draw 32% | Beijing Guoan 40%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 3.57 | Draw 3.17 | Beijing Guoan 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Wuhan Three Towns 50% (last 10 home games) | Beijing Guoan 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Wuhan Three Towns 32 games, Beijing Guoan 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, matchday 3 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 28% | Draw 32% | Beijing Guoan 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 0.96 / Beijing Guoan 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.028 / def 0.958 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.013 / def 0.690 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Beijing Guoan xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan?
Wuhan Three Towns 0 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan is a Super League fixture (matchday 3) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 28% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns's attack at 1.03x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 32 games and Beijing Guoan's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
28%
3.57
32%
3.17
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.17
1.21
Beijing Guoan xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.8 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.21 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Three Towns's recent record stands at 39W 12D 13L from 64 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 31W 16D 17L across 64 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Three Towns on 2.02 PPG, Beijing Guoan on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wuhan Three Towns have managed 19W 6D 7L from their last 32 home games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 15W 8D 9L across their last 32 away games, a 1.66 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.72 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs Beijing Guoan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 39W 12D 13L in their last 64 games (2.02 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 16D 17L in their last 64 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.97 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 27 June 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Aug 2022, when Wuhan Three Towns won Wuhan Three Towns 5-1 Beijing Guoan.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wuhan Three Towns
3
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 June 2026: Beijing Guoan 1-0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 53%, Beijing Guoan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Wuhan Three Towns and 66% for Beijing Guoan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 62% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 66% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 81% of Beijing Guoan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Wuhan Three Towns 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Wuhan Three Towns 0-1 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 0.96 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.21 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wuhan Three Towns fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.01 / defence 0.69, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 28% | Draw 32% | Beijing Guoan 40%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 64%, Beijing Guoan 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 2.02 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.