Hangzhou Greentown 1-2 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hangzhou Greentown face Qingdao Youth Island.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Qingdao Youth Island travel to Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium to take on Hangzhou Greentown in Super League (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Hangzhou Greentown — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.47 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.988 / defence 0.707 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.726 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.319. Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output up. Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating of 0.726 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Hangzhou Greentown have a tight defence (rating 0.707), which is pulling Qingdao Youth Island's projected output down. Data: built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 33 games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 3.
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 56% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Youth Island 17%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.78 | Draw 3.77 | Qingdao Youth Island 5.84. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (56%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, matchday 4 | Venue: Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 56% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Youth Island 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.47 / Qingdao Youth Island 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.988 / def 0.707 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.726 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Qingdao Youth Island xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island FAQs
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Hangzhou Greentown 1 - 2 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Super League fixture (matchday 4) (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 56% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 0.99x the league average against Qingdao Youth Island's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 33 games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 3 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
56%
1.78
27%
3.77
17%
5.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.15
0.68
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
5.84
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
4%
25.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.68 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Hangzhou Greentown (Home) vs Qingdao Youth Island (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 28 June 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Jul 2024, when Qingdao Youth Island won Qingdao Youth Island 5-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
0
Draws
3
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Qingdao Youth Island have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 June 2026: Qingdao Youth Island 3-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Qingdao Youth Island defy the odds to beat Hangzhou Greentown 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Hangzhou Greentown 1-2 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.47 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.68 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.99 / defence 0.71 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.73 / defence 1.21, drawn from 33/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 56% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Youth Island 17%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Qingdao Youth Island win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.