York United 3-0 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vancouver FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
York Lions Stadium plays host to York United versus Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
York United have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
York United's home record at York Lions Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Vancouver FC (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vancouver FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 61% versus Vancouver FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 64% | Vancouver FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.20 xG and Vancouver FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.777 / defence 1.275 | Vancouver FC attack 0.978 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.084. York United's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 York United games / 30 Vancouver FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: York United 33% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 40%. Fair-value odds: York United 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Vancouver FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vancouver FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vancouver FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: York United 50% | Vancouver FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 33% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG York United 1.20 / Vancouver FC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.777 / def 1.275 | Vancouver FC attack 0.978 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Vancouver FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Vancouver FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Vancouver FC kick off?
York United vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Vancouver FC?
York United 3 - 0 Vancouver FC.
Where is York United vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Vancouver FC part of?
York United vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 33% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vancouver FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both York United and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Vancouver FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Vancouver FC in?
York United (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Vancouver FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
York United's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Vancouver FC's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (0.98x) against York United's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
The sample (30/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vancouver FC Win
33%
3.04
27%
3.69
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
York United xG
Total xG
2.55
1.35
Vancouver FC xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
9%
11.76
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are York United and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for York United and 1.35 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, York United have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 11W 5D 12L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Vancouver FC's form line: 8W 5D 15L from 28 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for York United against 1.04 for Vancouver FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, York United have posted 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (4W 2D 7L).
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 3W 2D 8L from 13 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
York United are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Current Season
Vancouver FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 11W 5D 12L in their last 28 games (1.36 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 8W 5D 15L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Vancouver FC away?
York United's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.08 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won 4-0 on 19 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
York United
2
Draws
2
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 6, Vancouver FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did York United and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Vancouver FC 4-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Vancouver FC?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 46%, Vancouver FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (York United) and 54% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: York United have failed to score in 38% of games; Vancouver FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Vancouver FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of York United's recent matches and 54% of Vancouver FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of York United's recent games and 54% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant York United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vancouver FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Vancouver FC 3-0 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.20 xG and Vancouver FC 1.35 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vancouver FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.78 / defence 1.27 against Vancouver FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it York United 33% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 40%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 64%, Vancouver FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.36 PPG, Vancouver FC 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.