SK Beveren 0-1 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Patro Eisden make the trip to Freethielstadion to face SK Beveren in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
SK Beveren (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Freethielstadion, SK Beveren have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Patro Eisden's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Patro Eisden have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for SK Beveren, 1.60 for Patro Eisden — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SK Beveren 0W, Patro Eisden 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Patro Eisden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SK Beveren — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Patro Eisden — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 48% versus Patro Eisden 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 60% | Patro Eisden 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.40 xG and Patro Eisden 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.215 / defence 1.181 | Patro Eisden attack 0.535 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.413. Data: 47 SK Beveren games / 25 Patro Eisden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 49% | Draw 27% | Patro Eisden 24%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Patro Eisden 4.17. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 70% | Patro Eisden 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 49% | Draw 27% | Patro Eisden 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG SK Beveren 1.40 / Patro Eisden 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.215 / def 1.181 | Patro Eisden attack 0.535 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Patro Eisden xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden kick off?
SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 March 2024 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden?
SK Beveren 0 - 1 Patro Eisden.
Where is SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden part of?
SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 49% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SK Beveren and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Patro Eisden?
Record (1 meetings): SK Beveren 0W | Draws 0 | Patro Eisden 1W.
What form are SK Beveren and Patro Eisden in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SK Beveren's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Patro Eisden's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Patro Eisden's attack (0.54x) against SK Beveren's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 47/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.67
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.29
0.89
Patro Eisden xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
6%
17.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.89 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 11W 6D 8L from 25 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Patro Eisden, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 6L across 25 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for SK Beveren against 1.64 for Patro Eisden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 5W 3D 4L from 12 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Patro Eisden's away record stands at 4W 5D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
SK Beveren are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.32 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Patro Eisden in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 11W 6D 8L in their last 25 games (1.56 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 11W 8D 6L in their last 25 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Patro Eisden away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.50 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.42 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SK Beveren won 1-4 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Patro Eisden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SK Beveren
1
Draws
4
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Patro Eisden?
From 8 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 3, Patro Eisden have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Patro Eisden 1-4 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 67%, Patro Eisden 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (SK Beveren) and 42% (Patro Eisden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden in 50%; Patro Eisden in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Patro Eisden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 33% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of SK Beveren's matches and 42% of Patro Eisden's.
Do SK Beveren and Patro Eisden tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Patro Eisden in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Patro Eisden defy the odds to beat SK Beveren 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat SK Beveren 0-1 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.40 xG and Patro Eisden 0.89 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SK Beveren fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.22 / defence 1.18 against Patro Eisden attack 0.54 / defence 0.91, drawn from 47/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 49% | Draw 27% | Patro Eisden 24%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Patro Eisden win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 60%, Patro Eisden 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.56 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.