SK Beveren 0-1 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SK Beveren face Patro Eisden.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Patro Eisden make the trip to Freethielstadion to face SK Beveren in Challenger Pro League (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
SK Beveren (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, SK Beveren have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Patro Eisden's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Patro Eisden have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for SK Beveren, 1.60 for Patro Eisden — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for SK Beveren, 1 for Patro Eisden and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended SK Beveren 1–2 Patro Eisden — a Patro Eisden win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SK Beveren — key trading statistics (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Patro Eisden — key trading statistics (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 48% versus Patro Eisden 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 60% | Patro Eisden 56%). Note also that Patro Eisden surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while SK Beveren recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.40 xG and Patro Eisden 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.215 / defence 1.181 | Patro Eisden attack 0.535 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.413. Patro Eisden's attack rating of 0.535 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from SK Beveren's last 47 games and Patro Eisden's last 25.
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 49% | Draw 27% | Patro Eisden 24%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.05 | Draw 3.67 | Patro Eisden 4.18. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SK Beveren 70% (last 10 home games) | Patro Eisden 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 49% | Draw 27% | Patro Eisden 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG SK Beveren 1.40 / Patro Eisden 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.215 / def 1.181 | Patro Eisden attack 0.535 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Patro Eisden xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden FAQs
What time does SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden kick off?
SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 15 March 2024 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden?
SK Beveren 0 - 1 Patro Eisden.
Where is SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden part of?
SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 49% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SK Beveren and Patro Eisden will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SK Beveren's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Patro Eisden's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Patro Eisden's attack (0.54x) against SK Beveren's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from SK Beveren's last 47 games and Patro Eisden's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.67
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.29
0.89
Patro Eisden xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
6%
17.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.89 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 11W 6D 8L from 25 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Patro Eisden, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 6L across 25 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for SK Beveren against 1.64 for Patro Eisden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 5W 3D 4L from their last 12 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Patro Eisden's away record stands at 4W 5D 3L across their last 12 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
SK Beveren are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.32 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Patro Eisden in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
SK Beveren (Home) vs Patro Eisden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SK Beveren
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
❓ SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden Form FAQs
What form are SK Beveren and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 11W 6D 8L in their last 25 games (1.56 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 11W 8D 6L in their last 25 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Patro Eisden away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.50 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.42 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between SK Beveren and Patro Eisden, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: SK Beveren have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SK Beveren won Patro Eisden 1-4 SK Beveren on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Patro Eisden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SK Beveren
1
Draws
4
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Patro Eisden?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, SK Beveren have won 3, Patro Eisden have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Patro Eisden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Patro Eisden 1-4 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 67%, Patro Eisden 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (SK Beveren) and 42% (Patro Eisden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden in 50%; Patro Eisden in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SK Beveren and Patro Eisden matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 33% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SK Beveren and Patro Eisden matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of SK Beveren's matches and 42% of Patro Eisden's.
Do SK Beveren and Patro Eisden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 50% of Patro Eisden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Patro Eisden defy the odds to beat SK Beveren 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat SK Beveren 0-1 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.40 xG and Patro Eisden 0.89 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SK Beveren fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.22 / defence 1.18 against Patro Eisden attack 0.54 / defence 0.91, drawn from 47/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 49% | Draw 27% | Patro Eisden 24%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Patro Eisden win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 60%, Patro Eisden 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.56 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.