Liège 5-1 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Liège face SK Beveren.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SK Beveren make the trip to Stade Rue de la Tonne to face Liège in Challenger Pro League (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Sunday 31 March 2024 at 19:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Liège have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Liège's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
SK Beveren's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Liège, 1.30 for SK Beveren — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Liège edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Liège 2–1 SK Beveren — a Liège win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Liège half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liège 50% versus SK Beveren 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liège 50% | SK Beveren 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liège 0.92 xG and SK Beveren 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liège attack 0.800 / defence 1.090 | SK Beveren attack 0.949 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.386. Data: built from Liège's last 26 games and SK Beveren's last 48.
Result probabilities: Liège 24% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 49%. Fair-value odds: Liège 4.15 | Draw 3.73 | SK Beveren 2.04. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Liège 50% (last 10 home games) | SK Beveren 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liège vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: Stade Rue de la Tonne • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liège 24% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Liège 0.92 / SK Beveren 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Liège attack 0.800 / def 1.090 | SK Beveren attack 0.949 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Liège xG
Expected Goals
1.43
SK Beveren xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Liège vs SK Beveren FAQs
What time does Liège vs SK Beveren kick off?
Liège vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Stade Rue de la Tonne.
What was the final score in Liège vs SK Beveren?
Liège 5 - 1 SK Beveren.
Where is Liège vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Stade Rue de la Tonne.
What competition is Liège vs SK Beveren part of?
Liège vs SK Beveren is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Liège vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Liège a 24% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liège vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Liège and SK Beveren will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Liège vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Liège's attack rating (0.80) and SK Beveren's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SK Beveren's attack (0.95x) against Liège's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from Liège's last 26 games and SK Beveren's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
24%
4.15
27%
3.73
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Liège xG
Total xG
2.35
1.43
SK Beveren xG
4.15
24%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
6%
17.40
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.7 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Liège vs SK Beveren Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Liège vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Liège and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Liège and 1.43 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Liège vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Liège have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 12W 3D 11L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
SK Beveren's form line: 11W 6D 9L from 26 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Liège against 1.50 for SK Beveren. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Liège have posted 1.69 PPG from their last 13 home games (7W 1D 5L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 6W 3D 4L from their last 13 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Liège are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.46 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liège
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
Liège (Home) vs SK Beveren (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Liège
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Liège vs SK Beveren Form FAQs
What form are Liège and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Liège have gone 12W 3D 11L in their last 26 games (1.50 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 11W 6D 9L in their last 26 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liège at home or SK Beveren away?
Liège's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liège at home: 1.69 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Liège or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liège have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: SK Beveren have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Liège won Liège 5-1 SK Beveren on 31 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liège have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SK Beveren — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Liège
1
Draws
3
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Liège vs SK Beveren H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Liège and SK Beveren?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Liège have won 2, SK Beveren have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Liège and SK Beveren last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: SK Beveren 4-0 Liège.
Who has won more matches between Liège and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Liège are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liège 46%, SK Beveren 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Liège) and 46% (SK Beveren).
On the defensive side: Liège keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; SK Beveren in 46%; SK Beveren in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liège home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Liège vs SK Beveren Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Liège and SK Beveren matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Liège's recent matches and 31% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Liège and SK Beveren matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Liège's recent games and 46% of SK Beveren's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Liège and SK Beveren matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Liège's recent matches and 62% of SK Beveren's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Liège run riot with a 5-1 hammering of SK Beveren.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liège beat SK Beveren 5-1 at Stade Rue de la Tonne, Regular Season - 27, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 0.92 xG and SK Beveren 1.43 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Liège beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 0.80 / defence 1.09 against SK Beveren attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 26/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liège 24% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 49%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Liège win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 50%, SK Beveren 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liège's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
SK Beveren's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Liège 1.50 PPG, SK Beveren 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liège win broke the near-deadlock. Liège (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.