Patro Eisden 3-0 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lommel United at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Patro Eisden vs Lommel United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Patro Eisden host Lommel United at Patrostadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Patro Eisden — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Patro Eisden at Patrostadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Lommel United have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lommel United are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Patro Eisden, 0 for Lommel United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Patro Eisden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Patro Eisden in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 42% versus Lommel United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 54% | Lommel United 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.23 xG and Lommel United 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.099 / defence 0.934 | Lommel United attack 1.181 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.401. Data: 26 Patro Eisden games / 48 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 30% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 45%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Lommel United 2.22. Lommel United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lommel United are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Patro Eisden 40% | Lommel United 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 30% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Patro Eisden 1.23 / Lommel United 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.099 / def 0.934 | Lommel United attack 1.181 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Lommel United xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs Lommel United kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Lommel United kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Lommel United?
Patro Eisden 3 - 0 Lommel United.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Lommel United part of?
Patro Eisden vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 30% chance of winning, Lommel United a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Patro Eisden and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Lommel United?
Record (1 meetings): Patro Eisden 1W | Draws 0 | Lommel United 0W.
What form are Patro Eisden and Lommel United in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Lommel United (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Patro Eisden's attack rating (1.10) and Lommel United's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
30%
3.29
25%
3.99
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.78
1.55
Lommel United xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
6%
15.46
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.55 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Patro Eisden's recent record stands at 12W 8D 6L from 26 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 6L across 26 games — 1.85 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Patro Eisden on 1.69 PPG, Lommel United on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Patro Eisden have managed 7W 3D 3L from 13 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lommel United's away record stands at 6W 4D 3L across 13 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.77 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Lommel United in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 12W 8D 6L in their last 26 games (1.69 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 14W 6D 6L in their last 26 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or Lommel United away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.85 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lommel United in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Patro Eisden and Lommel United runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Patro Eisden won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Patro Eisden's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
1
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Lommel United?
From 6 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 4, Lommel United have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Lommel United 1-1 Patro Eisden.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and Lommel United?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 54%, Lommel United 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Patro Eisden and 69% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United in 31%; Patro Eisden have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Patro Eisden's games and 69% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Patro Eisden's matches and 69% of Lommel United's.
Do Patro Eisden and Lommel United tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Patro Eisden run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lommel United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat Lommel United 3-0 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.23 xG and Lommel United 1.55 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lommel United landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.10 / defence 0.93 against Lommel United attack 1.18 / defence 0.88, drawn from 26/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 30% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 45%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Patro Eisden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 54%, Lommel United 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lommel United's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 1.69 PPG, Lommel United 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.