Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-1 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Al Wahda FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Al Wahda FC to Rashid Stadium in Pro League (matchday 4). Kick-off is Friday 29 September 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 7W 3D 0L — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Wahda FC stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Wahda FC away from home: 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.80 exceeds their overall 2.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 2.40 PPG versus Al Wahda FC's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 1 for Al Wahda FC and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2023, ended Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1–1 Al Wahda FC — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62% versus Al Wahda FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 69% | Al Wahda FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.42 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.105 / defence 0.842 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.024 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.833. Data: built from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 29 games and Al Wahda FC's last 29. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 34% | Draw 24% | Al Wahda FC 42%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.92 | Draw 4.13 | Al Wahda FC 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.42 / 1.58) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 10 home games and Al Wahda FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Wahda FC 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 29 games, Al Wahda FC 29) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 4 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 September 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 34% | Draw 24% | Al Wahda FC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.42 / Al Wahda FC 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.105 / def 0.842 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.024 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.833 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Al Wahda FC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC FAQs
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 29 September 2023 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3 - 1 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 4) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 34% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (1.10) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 29 games and Al Wahda FC's last 29, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
34%
2.92
24%
4.13
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.00
1.58
Al Wahda FC xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
7%
14.19
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.58 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent record stands at 20W 6D 3L from 29 games, a 2.28 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Al Wahda FC, meanwhile, have gone 17W 7D 5L across 29 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 2.28 PPG, Al Wahda FC on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have managed 10W 2D 2L from their last 14 home games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wahda FC's away record stands at 11W 2D 1L across their last 14 away games, a 2.50 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 2.00 PPG overall record — Al Wahda FC travel well.
The Goals Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.79 scored and 1.00 conceded. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's scoring rate against Al Wahda FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Home) vs Al Wahda FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC Form FAQs
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 20W 6D 3L in their last 29 games (2.28 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 17W 7D 5L in their last 29 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.29 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
6
Draws
1
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, Al Wahda FC have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57%, Al Wahda FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 50% for Al Wahda FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al Wahda FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 50% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 50% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 64% of Al Wahda FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Wahda FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al Wahda FC 3-1 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.42 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.58 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.10 / defence 0.84 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 34% | Draw 24% | Al Wahda FC 42%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 69%, Al Wahda FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.28 PPG, Al Wahda FC 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win broke the near-deadlock. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.