Police Tero 1-3 Trat FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Police Tero at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Police Tero vs Trat FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Police Tero welcome Trat FC to Boonyachinda Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 December 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Police Tero stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Boonyachinda Stadium, Police Tero have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Trat FC have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Trat FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trat FC's away record: 0W 1D 3L from 4 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Police Tero) versus 1.20 (Trat FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Police Tero trading profile (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Trat FC trading profile (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Police Tero 91% and Trat FC 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Police Tero 82% | Trat FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 2.01 xG and Trat FC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.965 / defence 1.224 | Trat FC attack 0.674 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.240. Trat FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Police Tero's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Police Tero games / 11 Trat FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 59% | Draw 24% | Trat FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Trat FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Police Tero (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Police Tero as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 90% | Trat FC 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Trat FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 59% | Draw 24% | Trat FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Police Tero 2.01 / Trat FC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 0.965 / def 1.224 | Trat FC attack 0.674 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Trat FC xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Trat FC kick off?
Police Tero vs Trat FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Trat FC?
Police Tero 1 - 3 Trat FC.
Where is Police Tero vs Trat FC being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Trat FC part of?
Police Tero vs Trat FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Trat FC?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 59% chance of winning, Trat FC a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Trat FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Police Tero and Trat FC will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Trat FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Trat FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Police Tero and Trat FC in?
Police Tero (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Trat FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Police Tero's attack rating (0.96) and Trat FC's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trat FC's attack versus Police Tero's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.25
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Police Tero xG
Total xG
3.03
1.02
Trat FC xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
2%
42.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Trat FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Trat FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.02 for Trat FC, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Trat FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Police Tero's recent record stands at 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trat FC, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 4L across 11 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Trat FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Police Tero on 1.36 PPG, Trat FC on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Police Tero have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trat FC's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trat FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Police Tero come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Police Tero are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Trat FC are on 1.09 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero have seen both teams score in 91% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Trat FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Trat FC in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Trat FC have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Trat FC away?
Police Tero's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.25 PPG; Trat FC away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Police Tero
0
Draws
2
Trat FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Trat FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 0, Trat FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Trat FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Trat FC 4-2 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Police Tero and Trat FC?
Trat FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Police Tero see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trat FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Police Tero 100%, Trat FC 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Police Tero and 75% for Trat FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trat FC in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Trat FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Trat FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Police Tero's games and 25% of Trat FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Trat FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Police Tero's matches and 75% of Trat FC's.
Trat FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Police Tero.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trat FC beat Police Tero 1-3 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 2.01 xG and Trat FC 1.02 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Police Tero fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Trat FC outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 0.96 / defence 1.22 against Trat FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.28, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 59% | Draw 24% | Trat FC 17%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Trat FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 82%, Trat FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 91% of their matches — today it did.
Trat FC's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Police Tero 1.36 PPG, Trat FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trat FC win broke the near-deadlock. Police Tero (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trat FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.