Trat FC 2-2 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trat FC at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Trat FC face Khon Kaen United.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Trat Provincial Central Stadium plays host to Trat FC versus Khon Kaen United in Thai League 1 (matchday 11). Kick-off: Monday 27 November 2023 at 11:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Trat FC have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Trat FC have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 home games (1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Trat FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Khon Kaen United (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Khon Kaen United have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Trat FC — key trading statistics (last 10 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Khon Kaen United — key trading statistics (last 10 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trat FC 40% versus Khon Kaen United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trat FC 60% | Khon Kaen United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trat FC 1.81 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trat FC attack 0.837 / defence 1.027 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.998 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.253. Khon Kaen United's defence rating of 1.328 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Trat FC's projected output up. Data: built from Trat FC's last 10 games and Khon Kaen United's last 40.
Result probabilities: Trat FC 49% | Draw 25% | Khon Kaen United 26%. Fair-value odds: Trat FC 2.04 | Draw 4.06 | Khon Kaen United 3.78. Trat FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trat FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trat FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Trat FC's last 6 home games and Khon Kaen United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trat FC 50% (last 6 home games) | Khon Kaen United 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 11 | Venue: Trat Provincial Central Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 November 2023 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trat FC 49% | Draw 25% | Khon Kaen United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Trat FC 1.81 / Khon Kaen United 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Trat FC attack 0.837 / def 1.027 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.998 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Trat FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Trat FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Khon Kaen United xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United FAQs
What time does Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Monday 27 November 2023 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Trat FC 2 - 2 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What competition is Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 11) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Trat FC a 49% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trat FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Trat FC and Khon Kaen United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Trat FC's attack rating (0.84) and Khon Kaen United's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Khon Kaen United's attack (1.00x) against Trat FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Trat FC's last 10 games and Khon Kaen United's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trat FC Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.06
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Trat FC xG
Total xG
3.09
1.28
Khon Kaen United xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
4%
23.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Trat FC and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Trat FC and 1.28 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Trat FC come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 3D 4L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Trat FC against 1.00 for Khon Kaen United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Trat FC's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across their last 5 home games, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Trat FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Khon Kaen United have taken 0.80 points per game from their last 5 away games (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trat FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Trat FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 1.40 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khon Kaen United in 60%.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trat FC
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Trat FC (Home) vs Khon Kaen United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trat FC
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United Form FAQs
What form are Trat FC and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Trat FC have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trat FC at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Trat FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trat FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Trat FC or Khon Kaen United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trat FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Khon Kaen United in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Trat FC and Khon Kaen United, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Trat FC
2
Draws
0
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Khon Kaen United?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Trat FC have won 0, Khon Kaen United have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trat FC and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2024: Khon Kaen United 1-1 Trat FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trat FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trat FC 40%, Khon Kaen United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Trat FC) and 60% (Khon Kaen United).
On the defensive side: Trat FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Trat FC have failed to score in 40% of games; Khon Kaen United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trat FC home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trat FC and Khon Kaen United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Trat FC's recent matches and 60% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Trat FC and Khon Kaen United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Trat FC's recent games and 60% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trat FC and Khon Kaen United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Trat FC's recent matches and 60% of Khon Kaen United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trat FC and Khon Kaen United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trat FC and Khon Kaen United finished level at 2-2 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trat FC 1.81 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.28 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trat FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against Khon Kaen United attack 1.00 / defence 1.33, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trat FC 49% | Draw 25% | Khon Kaen United 26%, with Trat FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trat FC 60%, Khon Kaen United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trat FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trat FC 1.20 PPG, Khon Kaen United 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trat FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.