Chiangrai United 1-2 Police Tero – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chiangrai United face Police Tero.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Singha Chiangrai Stadium plays host to Chiangrai United versus Police Tero in Thai League 1 (matchday 13). Kick-off: Monday 11 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Chiangrai United have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Chiangrai United have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Police Tero's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Police Tero have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Chiangrai United, 1.40 for Police Tero — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Chiangrai United's last 10 home games and Police Tero's last 10 away games) — Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Police Tero in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Police Tero edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2023, ended Chiangrai United 1–2 Police Tero — a Police Tero win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Chiangrai United half-time and goal-timing data (last 41 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Police Tero half-time and goal-timing data (last 41 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 66% and Police Tero 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 56% | Police Tero 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.60 xG and Police Tero 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.896 / defence 0.750 | Police Tero attack 0.966 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.276. Chiangrai United have a tight defence (rating 0.750), which is pulling Police Tero's projected output down. Data: built from Chiangrai United's last 41 games and Police Tero's last 42.

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 52% | Draw 26% | Police Tero 21%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.91 | Draw 3.79 | Police Tero 4.73. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though recent form (Chiangrai United's last 10 home games and Police Tero's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Chiangrai United 60% (last 10 home games) | Police Tero 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights