Buriram United 4-0 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Buriram United at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Buriram United vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Uthai Thani make the trip to Chang Arena to face Buriram United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Buriram United (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Buriram United have posted 6W 3D 1L at Chang Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena.
Uthai Thani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's away record: 3W 1D 2L from 6 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Buriram United half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 43% versus Uthai Thani 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 57% | Uthai Thani 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 2.11 xG and Uthai Thani 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.109 / defence 0.738 | Uthai Thani attack 1.092 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.334. Buriram United's defence rating of 0.738 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Buriram United games / 14 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 60% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 17%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Uthai Thani 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Buriram United 40% | Uthai Thani 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 60% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Buriram United 2.11 / Uthai Thani 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.109 / def 0.738 | Uthai Thani attack 1.092 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Uthai Thani xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Buriram United vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Uthai Thani?
Buriram United 4 - 0 Uthai Thani.
Where is Buriram United vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Uthai Thani part of?
Buriram United vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 60% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Buriram United and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Uthai Thani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Buriram United and Uthai Thani in?
Buriram United (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Uthai Thani (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Buriram United's attack rating (1.11) and Uthai Thani's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (1.09x) against Buriram United's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 42/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.41
17%
5.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Buriram United xG
Total xG
3.18
1.07
Uthai Thani xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
5.74
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
12%
8.22
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
2%
47.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.07 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Uthai Thani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Buriram United have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 6W 7D 1L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Uthai Thani's form line: 5W 3D 6L from 14 games, 1.29 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Uthai Thani.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Buriram United have posted 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (3W 3D 0L).
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Buriram United are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.36 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 6W 7D 1L in their last 14 games (1.79 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Uthai Thani away?
Buriram United's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.00 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Uthai Thani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Uthai Thani in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 9 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Buriram United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 4-0 on 23 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Buriram United have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Buriram United
1
Draws
0
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 5, Uthai Thani have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 9 January 2026, when Uthai Thani 0-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Uthai Thani?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 33%, Uthai Thani 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Buriram United and 83% for Uthai Thani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Buriram United have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Buriram United's recent matches and 67% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Buriram United's matches and 83% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Buriram United and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Uthai Thani.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Uthai Thani 4-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.11 xG and Uthai Thani 1.07 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Uthai Thani landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.11 / defence 0.74 against Uthai Thani attack 1.09 / defence 1.13, drawn from 42/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 60% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 17%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 57%, Uthai Thani 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.