Uthai Thani 1-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Uthai Thani face Chiangrai United.

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Match Analysis

Uthai Thani host Chiangrai United at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 11 February 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Uthai Thani have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Uthai Thani's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 4L across their last 8 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Chiangrai United — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Uthai Thani) versus 1.10 (Chiangrai United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Uthai Thani have won 0, Chiangrai United 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Uthai Thani 0–3 Chiangrai United — a Chiangrai United win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 53% versus Chiangrai United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 67% | Chiangrai United 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.30 xG and Chiangrai United 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.806 / defence 1.208 | Chiangrai United attack 0.955 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.332. Uthai Thani's defence rating of 1.208 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chiangrai United's projected output up. Data: built from Uthai Thani's last 15 games and Chiangrai United's last 45.

Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 31% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 41%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 3.24 | Draw 3.58 | Chiangrai United 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Uthai Thani's last 8 home games and Chiangrai United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Uthai Thani 50% (last 8 home games) | Chiangrai United 70% (last 10 away games).

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