Lamphun Warrior 5-1 Trat FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Trat FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mae Guang Stadium plays host to Lamphun Warrior versus Trat FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 24 December 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lamphun Warrior's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior at Mae Guang Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at Mae Guang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Trat FC (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trat FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Trat FC have posted 1W 1D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Lamphun Warrior, 1.30 for Trat FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Lamphun Warrior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Trat FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 64% and Trat FC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lamphun Warrior 71% | Trat FC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 2.03 xG and Trat FC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.036 / defence 0.913 | Trat FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.319. Data: 44 Lamphun Warrior games / 14 Trat FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 60% | Draw 23% | Trat FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Trat FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 80% | Trat FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Trat FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Mae Guang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Dec 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 60% | Draw 23% | Trat FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Lamphun Warrior 2.03 / Trat FC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.036 / def 0.913 | Trat FC attack 0.850 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Trat FC xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Trat FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Trat FC kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 24 December 2023 at Mae Guang Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Trat FC?
Lamphun Warrior 5 - 1 Trat FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Trat FC being played?
The match is being played at Mae Guang Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Trat FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Trat FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Trat FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 60% chance of winning, Trat FC a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Trat FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Trat FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Trat FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Trat FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Trat FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Trat FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (1.04) and Trat FC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trat FC's attack (0.85x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.31
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.05
1.02
Trat FC xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
13%
7.62
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
2%
44.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Trat FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Trat FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.02 for Trat FC, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Trat FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 4D 6L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trat FC sit at 1.14 PPG from 14 outings (4W 4D 6L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Trat FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 1.14 for Trat FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 4W 1D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Trat FC have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Trat FC are on 1.29 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Trat FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Trat FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Trat FC have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Trat FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 2.60 PPG; Trat FC away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
1
Draws
0
Trat FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Trat FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Trat FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Trat FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Trat FC 2-2 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Trat FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Trat FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 80%, Trat FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Lamphun Warrior and 80% for Trat FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trat FC in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Trat FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Trat FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 40% of Trat FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Trat FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 80% of Trat FC's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Trat FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Trat FC in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lamphun Warrior run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Trat FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Trat FC 5-1 at Mae Guang Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 2.03 xG and Trat FC 1.02 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.04 / defence 0.91 against Trat FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 60% | Draw 23% | Trat FC 17%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 71%, Trat FC 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (14 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Trat FC's trading profile (14 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.14 PPG, Trat FC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Trat FC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.