IK brage 2-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IK brage face Ostersunds FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ostersunds FK travel to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen to take on IK brage in Superettan (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, IK brage stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
IK brage's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — IK brage are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Ostersunds FK — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Ostersunds FK have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IK brage 1.70 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of IK brage's games and 60% of Ostersunds FK's (from IK brage's last 10 home games and Ostersunds FK's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for IK brage, 1 for Ostersunds FK and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2023, ended IK brage 0–2 Ostersunds FK — a Ostersunds FK win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IK brage in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 57% versus Ostersunds FK 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 60% | Ostersunds FK 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.26 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.035 / defence 0.893 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.703 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 0.951. Ostersunds FK's attack rating of 0.703 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.60. Data: built from IK brage's last 36 games and Ostersunds FK's last 36.
Result probabilities: IK brage 52% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 17%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.91 | Draw 3.29 | Ostersunds FK 5.75. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 32% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Ostersunds FK's lower xG of 0.60 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 72% probability — low conviction — though recent form (IK brage's last 10 home games and Ostersunds FK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 68%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: IK brage 60% (last 10 home games) | Ostersunds FK 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, matchday 7 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 52% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 32% (No 68%) | xG IK brage 1.26 / Ostersunds FK 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.035 / def 0.893 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.703 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.286 / away 0.951 • Poisson stance: IK brage (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Ostersunds FK xG
32%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IK brage vs Ostersunds FK FAQs
What time does IK brage vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
IK brage vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
IK brage 2 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is IK brage vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Ostersunds FK part of?
IK brage vs Ostersunds FK is a Superettan fixture (matchday 7) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 52% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both IK brage and Ostersunds FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (68%).
Will IK brage vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IK brage's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IK brage's last 36 games and Ostersunds FK's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 18.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.2%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
52%
1.91
30%
3.29
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
IK brage xG
Total xG
1.85
0.60
Ostersunds FK xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.08
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
5%
20.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.7 | 11.8 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IK brage vs Ostersunds FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are IK brage and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for IK brage and 0.60 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IK brage come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 14D 23L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 1.27 PPG from 60 outings (18W 22D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.38 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IK brage's home form reads 15W 6D 9L across their last 30 home games, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 30 away games (6W 11D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IK brage are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.27 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
IK brage (Home) vs Ostersunds FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IK brage
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ IK brage vs Ostersunds FK Form FAQs
What form are IK brage and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 22D 20L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Ostersunds FK away?
IK brage's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.70 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 10 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
IK brage's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IK brage
2
Draws
4
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ IK brage vs Ostersunds FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Ostersunds FK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, IK brage have won 4, Ostersunds FK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 September 2026: Ostersunds FK 1-1 IK brage.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 57%, Ostersunds FK 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (IK brage) and 37% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IK brage vs Ostersunds FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IK brage and Ostersunds FK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of IK brage's games and 53% of Ostersunds FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are IK brage and Ostersunds FK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of IK brage's recent games and 37% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Ostersunds FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of IK brage's recent matches and 63% of Ostersunds FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Ostersunds FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Ostersunds FK 2-1 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.26 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.60 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.03 / defence 0.89 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.70 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 52% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 17%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 60%, Ostersunds FK 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.38 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.