Sandviken 0-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandviken at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sandviken and IK brage meet at Arena Jernvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sandviken have collected 1.50 PPG across 2 Superettan outings this season: 1W 0D 1L. Last five: L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Sandviken haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
IK brage (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, IK brage have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Sandviken, 1.70 for IK brage — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.23 xG and IK brage 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 0.904 / defence 0.999 | IK brage attack 1.069 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 0.889. Data: 5 Sandviken games / 35 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 40% | Draw 33% | IK brage 27%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | IK brage 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandviken at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandviken if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Arena Jernvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 40% | Draw 33% | IK brage 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Sandviken 1.23 / IK brage 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 0.904 / def 0.999 | IK brage attack 1.069 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.323 / away 0.889 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
0.95
IK brage xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs IK brage kick off?
Sandviken vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Arena Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs IK brage?
Sandviken 0 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Sandviken vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Arena Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs IK brage part of?
Sandviken vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 40% chance of winning, IK brage a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sandviken and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and IK brage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandviken and IK brage in?
Sandviken (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W. IK brage (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sandviken's attack at 0.90x the league average against IK brage's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (1.07x) against Sandviken's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
40%
2.47
33%
3.04
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.17
0.95
IK brage xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
8%
12.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sandviken and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Sandviken and 0.95 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sandviken come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. Sandviken haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, IK brage sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for IK brage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Sandviken against 1.50 for IK brage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Sandviken are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 0%.
Defensively: IK brage in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Pre-Season
IK brage
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and IK brage in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while IK brage have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Sandviken or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandviken have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, IK brage in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 14 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 2-5 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Sandviken
0
Draws
2
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and IK brage?
From 5 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 3, IK brage have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 14 June 2026, when Sandviken 3-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and IK brage?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sandviken's recent matches and 0% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandviken vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sandviken's recent games and 50% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandviken and IK brage tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, IK brage in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IK brage defy the odds to beat Sandviken 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Sandviken 0-1 at Arena Jernvallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.23 xG and IK brage 0.95 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sandviken fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against IK brage attack 1.07 / defence 1.02, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 40% | Draw 33% | IK brage 27%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 50%, IK brage 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.50 PPG, IK brage 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.