Trelleborg 2-2 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Utsikten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trelleborg host Utsikten at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 3W 3D 4L at Vångavallen — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Utsikten — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Utsikten's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Trelleborg have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Trelleborg have won 2, Utsikten 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 3–2 with Trelleborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Utsikten in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 63% versus Utsikten 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 63% | Utsikten 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.03 xG and Utsikten 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.863 / defence 1.129 | Utsikten attack 1.001 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 0.892. Data: 36 Trelleborg games / 36 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 35% | Draw 31% | Utsikten 34%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Utsikten 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 40% | Utsikten 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 35% | Draw 31% | Utsikten 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Trelleborg 1.03 / Utsikten 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.863 / def 1.129 | Utsikten attack 1.001 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.277 / away 0.892 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Utsikten xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Utsikten kick off?
Trelleborg vs Utsikten kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Trelleborg 2 - 2 Utsikten.
Where is Trelleborg vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Utsikten part of?
Trelleborg vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 35% chance of winning, Utsikten a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Trelleborg and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Utsikten?
Record (4 meetings): Trelleborg 2W | Draws 1 | Utsikten 1W.
What form are Trelleborg and Utsikten in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Utsikten (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (0.86) and Utsikten's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
35%
2.84
31%
3.21
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.04
1.01
Utsikten xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.01 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 23W 15D 22L from 60 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Utsikten, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 20L across 60 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.40 PPG, Utsikten on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 13W 6D 11L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Utsikten's away record stands at 13W 4D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Trelleborg are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.50 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
Utsikten
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 26W 14D 20L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Utsikten away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.50 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or Utsikten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Utsikten in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Utsikten runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Jul 2023, when Utsikten won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trelleborg
3
Draws
2
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Utsikten?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 3, Utsikten have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Utsikten 3-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Utsikten?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 57%, Utsikten 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Trelleborg) and 47% (Utsikten). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utsikten in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Utsikten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 43% of Utsikten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Trelleborg's matches and 47% of Utsikten's.
Do Trelleborg and Utsikten tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trelleborg and Utsikten share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 7, as Trelleborg and Utsikten drew 2-2 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.03 xG and Utsikten 1.01 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Trelleborg beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Utsikten outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.86 / defence 1.13 against Utsikten attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 35% | Draw 31% | Utsikten 34%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 63%, Utsikten 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Utsikten's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.40 PPG, Utsikten 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.