Gefle IF 1-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Gefle IF at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gefle IF face GIF Sundsvall.

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Analysis

GIF Sundsvall make the trip to Gavlevallen to face Gefle IF in Superettan (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form

Gefle IF (all games): 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Gefle IF at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Gefle IF are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

GIF Sundsvall have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Gefle IF against 1.20 for GIF Sundsvall. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, GIF Sundsvall edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2023, ended Gefle IF 2–2 GIF Sundsvall — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Gefle IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gefle IF 57% versus GIF Sundsvall 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 50% | GIF Sundsvall 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Gefle IF surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while GIF Sundsvall have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.54 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 1.135 / defence 1.289 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.713 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 0.981. GIF Sundsvall's attack rating of 0.713 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Gefle IF's defence rating of 1.289 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing GIF Sundsvall's projected output up. Data: built from Gefle IF's last 37 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 37.

Result probabilities: Gefle IF 52% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 22%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 1.92 | Draw 3.83 | GIF Sundsvall 4.59. Gefle IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Gefle IF are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gefle IF if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Gefle IF's last 10 home games and GIF Sundsvall's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gefle IF 50% (last 10 home games) | GIF Sundsvall 40% (last 10 away games).

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