Sandviken 3-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandviken at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC make the trip to Arena Jernvallen to face Sandviken in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sandviken (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Sandviken haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Varbergs BoIS FC's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Varbergs BoIS FC haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Varbergs BoIS FC away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.22 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 0.806 / defence 1.017 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.810 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 0.927. Data: 7 Sandviken games / 7 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 45% | Draw 33% | Varbergs BoIS FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | Varbergs BoIS FC 4.76. Sandviken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sandviken as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandviken if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Arena Jernvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 45% | Draw 33% | Varbergs BoIS FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Sandviken 1.22 / Varbergs BoIS FC 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 0.806 / def 1.017 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.810 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.298 / away 0.927 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Arena Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Sandviken 3 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Arena Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 45% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Sandviken (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sandviken's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (0.81x) against Sandviken's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
45%
2.21
33%
3.00
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Sandviken xG
Total xG
1.98
0.76
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sandviken and 0.76 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Sandviken have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — L-W across the most recent five. Sandviken haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W. Varbergs BoIS FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Varbergs BoIS FC are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sandviken.
Attack vs Defence
Sandviken are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Pre-Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandviken have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sandviken
2
Draws
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 3, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sandviken's games and 100% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandviken vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sandviken's matches and 100% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Sandviken and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandviken cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Varbergs BoIS FC 3-1 at Arena Jernvallen, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.22 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.76 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sandviken beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.17, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 45% | Draw 33% | Varbergs BoIS FC 21%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 50%, Varbergs BoIS FC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Varbergs BoIS FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Sandviken winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandviken scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Varbergs BoIS FC managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.