Degerfors IF 4-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stora Valla plays host to Degerfors IF versus Orgryte IS in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Degerfors IF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 7D 0L. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Degerfors IF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 4W 6D 0L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Orgryte IS's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Orgryte IS's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 60% versus Orgryte IS 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 50% | Orgryte IS 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.18 xG and Orgryte IS 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.050 / defence 1.264 | Orgryte IS attack 1.144 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 0.945. Data: 7 Degerfors IF games / 37 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 32% | Draw 28% | Orgryte IS 40%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Orgryte IS 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 60% | Orgryte IS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 32% | Draw 28% | Orgryte IS 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Degerfors IF 1.18 / Orgryte IS 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.050 / def 1.264 | Orgryte IS attack 1.144 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.279 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Orgryte IS xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS?
Degerfors IF 4 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS part of?
Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 32% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Degerfors IF and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Degerfors IF and Orgryte IS in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (1.14x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
32%
3.17
28%
3.56
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.54
1.37
Orgryte IS xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
8%
12.43
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.37 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 10D 13L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D. Degerfors IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (10W 6D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.20 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Degerfors IF's home form reads 5W 6D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (6W 1D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.10 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 10W 6D 14L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Orgryte IS away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.40 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Degerfors IF won 4-1 on 18 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
0
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Orgryte IS?
From 3 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Orgryte IS 1-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Orgryte IS?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, Orgryte IS 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Degerfors IF) and 47% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 40% of games; Orgryte IS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 47% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 47% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Degerfors IF run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Orgryte IS 4-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.18 xG and Orgryte IS 1.37 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Degerfors IF beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.05 / defence 1.26 against Orgryte IS attack 1.14 / defence 0.88, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 32% | Draw 28% | Orgryte IS 40%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 50%, Orgryte IS 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.03 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.