IFK Norrkoping 1-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PlatinumCars Arena plays host to IFK Norrkoping versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 23 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Norrkoping have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at PlatinumCars Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in IFK Norrkoping's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Degerfors IF in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IFK Norrkoping lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 2–0 with IFK Norrkoping winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Norrkoping 60% and Degerfors IF 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 49% | Degerfors IF 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 2.17 xG and Degerfors IF 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.934 / defence 1.085 | Degerfors IF attack 0.826 / defence 1.591. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.289. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.591 — this is suppressing IFK Norrkoping's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 IFK Norrkoping games / 46 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 60% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 19%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Degerfors IF 5.26. The model has a clear lean to IFK Norrkoping (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Norrkoping are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: IFK Norrkoping 60% | Degerfors IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 60% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG IFK Norrkoping 2.17 / Degerfors IF 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.934 / def 1.085 | Degerfors IF attack 0.826 / def 1.591 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Degerfors IF xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 July 2023 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF?
IFK Norrkoping 1 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 60% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF?
Record (5 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 2W | Draws 2 | Degerfors IF 1W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IFK Norrkoping's attack rating (0.93) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.59), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.83x) against IFK Norrkoping's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.62
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
3.33
1.16
Degerfors IF xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
11%
8.76
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
2%
46.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.16 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Norrkoping's recent record stands at 14W 14D 17L from 45 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 22L across 45 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for IFK Norrkoping against 1.00 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IFK Norrkoping have managed 7W 6D 8L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 3W 4D 14L across 21 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Norrkoping come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.04 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Degerfors IF in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 14W 14D 17L in their last 45 games (1.24 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 11W 12D 22L in their last 45 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Degerfors IF away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.29 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Degerfors IF won 4-1 on 28 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Norrkoping have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
IFK Norrkoping
3
Draws
2
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, Degerfors IF have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2025, when Degerfors IF 0-0 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 57%, Degerfors IF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (IFK Norrkoping) and 62% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of IFK Norrkoping's games and 62% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 62% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Norrkoping edge out Degerfors IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat Degerfors IF 1-0 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 2.17 xG and Degerfors IF 1.16 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IFK Norrkoping fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Degerfors IF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against Degerfors IF attack 0.83 / defence 1.59, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 60% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 19%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 49%, Degerfors IF 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.24 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.