AIK Stockholm 0-0 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Malmo FF (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AIK Stockholm face Malmo FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Malmo FF make the trip to Friends Arena to face AIK Stockholm in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
AIK Stockholm (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's home record at Friends Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Malmo FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
On a straight form reading, Malmo FF are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: AIK Stockholm 1W, Malmo FF 3W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Malmo FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
AIK Stockholm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Malmo FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 51% versus Malmo FF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 49% | Malmo FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.24 xG and Malmo FF 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.895 / defence 1.047 | Malmo FF attack 1.174 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.289. Data: 45 AIK Stockholm games / 45 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 29% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 44%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Malmo FF 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Malmo FF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Malmo FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 50% | Malmo FF 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 29% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.24 / Malmo FF 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.895 / def 1.047 | Malmo FF attack 1.174 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Malmo FF xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 July 2023 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
AIK Stockholm 0 - 0 Malmo FF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 29% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF?
Record (4 meetings): AIK Stockholm 1W | Draws 0 | Malmo FF 3W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 0.90x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Malmo FF's attack (1.17x) against AIK Stockholm's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
29%
3.46
27%
3.74
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.82
1.58
Malmo FF xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
6%
16.88
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.58 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 45 games, going 17W 12D 16L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 1.78 PPG from 45 outings (24W 8D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for AIK Stockholm against 1.78 for Malmo FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 9W 7D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.50 points per game from 22 outings (10W 3D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.76 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 17W 12D 16L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 24W 8D 13L in their last 45 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Malmo FF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.55 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.50 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Malmo FF won 5-0 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AIK Stockholm have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Malmo FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AIK Stockholm
4
Draws
5
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 1, Malmo FF have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when AIK Stockholm 0-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 41%, Malmo FF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (AIK Stockholm) and 54% (Malmo FF).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Malmo FF in 36%; Malmo FF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 46% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 54% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AIK Stockholm's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF finished level at 0-0 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.24 xG and Malmo FF 1.58 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AIK Stockholm fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Malmo FF landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.90 / defence 1.05 against Malmo FF attack 1.17 / defence 0.95, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 29% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 44%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 49%, Malmo FF 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Malmo FF's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.40 PPG, Malmo FF 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.