IF Brommapojkarna 1-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF meet at Grimsta IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 21 July 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
IF Brommapojkarna's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Grimsta IP this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hammarby FF (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Hammarby FF have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for IF Brommapojkarna, 1 for Hammarby FF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jun 2023, ended 1–2 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
IF Brommapojkarna — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Hammarby FF — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 64% versus Hammarby FF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 67% | Hammarby FF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.06 xG and Hammarby FF 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.689 / defence 1.202 | Hammarby FF attack 0.853 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.294. IF Brommapojkarna's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 IF Brommapojkarna games / 46 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 27% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 40%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Hammarby FF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 60% | Hammarby FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jul 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 27% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.06 / Hammarby FF 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.689 / def 1.202 | Hammarby FF attack 0.853 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Hammarby FF xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 21 July 2023 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF?
IF Brommapojkarna 1 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 27% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF?
Record (1 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 0W | Draws 0 | Hammarby FF 1W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IF Brommapojkarna's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (0.85x) against IF Brommapojkarna's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 15/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
27%
3.68
33%
3.04
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.39
1.33
Hammarby FF xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
7%
13.86
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.33 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IF Brommapojkarna come into this having played 45 games, going 25W 6D 14L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.67 PPG from 45 outings (21W 12D 12L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for IF Brommapojkarna against 1.67 for Hammarby FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
IF Brommapojkarna's home form reads 14W 3D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Brommapojkarna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.78 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 25W 6D 14L in their last 45 games (1.80 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 21W 12D 12L in their last 45 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Hammarby FF away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 2.05 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.09 PPG.
Have IF Brommapojkarna or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Brommapojkarna have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
2
Draws
4
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF?
From 7 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, Hammarby FF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 1-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 68%, Hammarby FF 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (IF Brommapojkarna) and 46% (Hammarby FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 32%; Hammarby FF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 41% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 46% of Hammarby FF's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IF Brommapojkarna defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Hammarby FF 1-0 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.06 xG and Hammarby FF 1.33 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hammarby FF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.69 / defence 1.20 against Hammarby FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 15/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 27% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 40%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual IF Brommapojkarna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 67%, Hammarby FF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.80 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.