Mallorca 1-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mallorca face Cadiz.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cadiz make the trip to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to face Mallorca in La Liga (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Wednesday 29 November 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Mallorca have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Mallorca are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cadiz's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Cadiz have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Mallorca, 0.60 for Cadiz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Mallorca edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2023, ended Mallorca 1–0 Cadiz — a Mallorca win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cadiz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 39% versus Cadiz 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 31% | Cadiz 31%). Note also that Cadiz surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Mallorca recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.27 xG and Cadiz 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.760 / defence 0.819 | Cadiz attack 0.768 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.201. Mallorca's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.27. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.768 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Mallorca's last 51 games and Cadiz's last 51.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 47% | Draw 32% | Cadiz 21%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.12 | Draw 3.11 | Cadiz 4.82. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mallorca's last 10 home games and Cadiz's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mallorca 40% (last 10 home games) | Cadiz 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, matchday 13 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 November 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 47% | Draw 32% | Cadiz 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Mallorca 1.27 / Cadiz 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.760 / def 0.819 | Cadiz attack 0.768 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Cadiz xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mallorca vs Cadiz FAQs
What time does Mallorca vs Cadiz kick off?
Mallorca vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Wednesday 29 November 2023 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Mallorca 1 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Mallorca vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Cadiz part of?
Mallorca vs Cadiz is a La Liga fixture (matchday 13) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 47% chance of winning, Cadiz a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Mallorca and Cadiz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Mallorca vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.76) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.77x) against Mallorca's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from Mallorca's last 51 games and Cadiz's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
47%
2.12
32%
3.11
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.02
0.76
Cadiz xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
6%
17.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mallorca vs Cadiz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.76 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mallorca's recent record stands at 15W 14D 22L from 51 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 23L across 51 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Mallorca against 1.02 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 10W 9D 5L from their last 24 home games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cadiz's away record stands at 3W 7D 14L across their last 24 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.78 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
Mallorca (Home) vs Cadiz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mallorca
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Mallorca vs Cadiz Form FAQs
What form are Mallorca and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 15W 14D 22L in their last 51 games (1.16 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 12W 16D 23L in their last 51 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Cadiz away?
Mallorca's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.62 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cadiz in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Mallorca
3
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Mallorca vs Cadiz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Cadiz?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Mallorca have won 2, Cadiz have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Cadiz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 April 2024: Cadiz 1-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Cadiz?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 38%, Cadiz 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Mallorca and 29% for Cadiz.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 29% of games; Cadiz in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mallorca vs Cadiz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mallorca and Cadiz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Mallorca's recent matches and 38% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mallorca and Cadiz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Mallorca's recent games and 29% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Mallorca and Cadiz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca and Cadiz finished level at 1-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.27 xG and Cadiz 0.76 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.76 / defence 0.82 against Cadiz attack 0.77 / defence 1.11, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 47% | Draw 32% | Cadiz 21%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 31%, Cadiz 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Cadiz's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.16 PPG, Cadiz 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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